How to Read a 10-K Like a Short Seller
A four-layer 10-K framework tests revenue timing, receivables, reserves and depreciation against cash flow, using Hertz’s 2012-14 accounting as a case study.
A four-layer 10-K framework tests revenue timing, receivables, reserves and depreciation against cash flow, using Hertz’s 2012-14 accounting as a case study.
$SURG - 25c to 43c, pre-market… to 28c at close. Would’ve been a nice short selling opportunity if you had courage. But was just too risky given how irrational penny stock pumps can be. Anyways, it shows the benefit of reading press releases beyond the headline. No need for AI. https://t.co/kYsB4WXMND
This is what dilution looks like, courtesy of $DVLT - from 5.6 million shares to almost one billion shares in around two years. Spectacular!! https://t.co/UyfWHQVfFm
@WaterworldCapi1 $jets Bad industry, oil might go up again, consumer spending may roll over, and the new "capacity discipline" is more lucky accident than strategic. Somebody, probably $aal will start dumping capacity on routes again and margins back to zero
Not bad earnings at $MCCK. Gold book took a mark to market loss. But core business is kicking at. Revenues up 8.9%. Gross margins expanding. Customer deposits and deferred revenue up 33%. Back out all the cash and gold and this is trading at a dirt cheap multiple.
Honestly $C is pretty fairly valued now, I don't there is much upside at all aside from the entire sector carrying it up. $OPBK continues to be heavily disrespected, think we are entering the "on par with peers phase" where CUBI and OPBK and ASIC have a chance to trade in line with competitors. Implies 20-30% upside on each, but will take some time.
Blackjack 21 hits 36% YTD, 29% above financials. Performance would've been a bit better actually, but I paper handed $WSBF, $HRTG, and $SNEX. Next week, will be adding a small cap financials name to the list, first new member of the Blackjack 21 in months. Below book, repurchasing shares, extremely niche, it'll be a fun one.
I’ve always felt that shares outstanding in microcaps tells you about the soul of Mgmt. So I instantly connected with @bmb21 when he made a similar comment pitching $AMNF at @MSmicrocaps summer virtual: “Share count tells you how Mgmt. feels about the sanctity of the shares.” https://t.co/88XsqxHLKB
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