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Tuesday, October 27, 2026

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How to Read a 10-K Like a Short Seller

A four-layer 10-K framework tests revenue timing, receivables, reserves and depreciation against cash flow, using Hertz’s 2012-14 accounting as a case study.

HTZ $684M
Jimmy's Journal 69 clicks

From X

@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Back in February I wrote up Sunstock $SSOK, a tiny public company that owned Mom's Silver Shop, a single coin shop in Sacramento. The thesis was simple. The last public financials showed 27,317 oz of silver and 80 oz of gold. At the time, with silver at $113 and gold at $5,340, that was about $3.5M of bullion. The market cap was about $67k. Liabilities were about $753k. Net of those, I got about $2.76M of value, or about $0.45 a share. The catch: the company went dark. In March 2025 it filed a vague late-filing notice, then nothing. The stock moved to the expert market. The shop closed. Someone reached out and told me the prior owner had said the CEO was arrested for fraud and his home and store were raided. I've never been able to confirm that. So it came down to two outcomes. Either the metal is gone or fake and this is a zero, or it's real, authorities have it, and something eventually comes back to shareholders. Where it stands now The metal has gotten cheaper. Silver is around $53 and gold around $4,010. That puts the bullion at about $1.78M. Net of liabilities, about $1.02M, or about $0.17 a share. The stock is quoted around $0.0185, a market cap of about $113k. So it's still about 9x on paper, down from the roughly 40x I wrote about. Most of that move is just silver coming off its highs. All the non-news No SEC filings since the March 2025 notice. Still flagged delinquent. No DOJ press release, no court record, no local news I can find tying the CEO or the company to an arrest, raid, or seizure. No receivership or custodianship filing I've found. One odd data point: in June 2026 the transfer agent verified a new share count, 6,121,873, up 15,000 shares. Small, but someone is still dealing with the transfer agent. That's it. Eight months of silence. So here's the ask If anyone knows anything about $SSOK, Sunstock, or Mom's Silver Shop in Sacramento, I'd love to hear it. Court records, the transfer agent, the former owner, people who used to shop there, anything. Let's see if we can piece this together. DMs are open.
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Clearwater Paper $CLW is a sitting duck for an aggressive activist. Stock is down 30% today. Management has zero at risk capital and all of the shares they own were given to them. No insider buys and only sells. Then this Stanford goofy comes in and buys their Augusta Mill for a ridiculously stupid valuation. He spent shareholders capital at the peak of the cycle for this capex pig at $1,184/ton. This mill has been a problem since day one and now is driving the stock down 30% today because they have to spend even more money on downtime for this POS. And then Mr. Arsen puts this POS in his header on LinkedIn. Only way they can realize value for this is by selling entire company or literally Arsen changing his name to Arson and torching this thing to the ground. The only thing Arsen is doing is torching shareholder capital here. There is no one stopping an activist here imo. Management owns 2% of the shares all from awards. No open market buys from insiders, only sells. Shareholders are visibly unhappy with say on pay support falling four years in a row and 2026 equity pay passed with only 54.5%. There is also no poison pill, all eight seats are up at the 2027 meeting and there is a fat change in control so management will get paid if you can get this dog shit sold. Also bank debt can be prepaid at par and that won't block a buyer. Suzano was exploring a bid in 2024 and Koch/Georgia-Pacific are logical buyers. Idea is to buy all the dog shit $CLW owns and shut it down and it fixes the oversupply in the market. Activist playbook is to buy a big block, flip the board, run a sales process and focus on capital discipline. I think you could sell this for $560/ton which is around $31/share, more than 2x current valuation. Management has blown their entire load on this dumb Augusta facility at the peak and it continues to cost shareholders who have at risk capital money. Management are employees who get paid no matter what happens. Activists should apply here. Fat pitch imo.

Investor Letters

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Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals’ How Mine mill reached 55,000 tonnes per month, 36% above prior capacity, while a proposed $30 million Ecobank facility…

NAMM $43M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Bimergen Energy: Research Flash

Bimergen Energy filed for a Texas retail-power license to supply data centers directly and gained eligibility for federal contracts through…

BESS $15M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

Unicycive (UNCY):

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical…

UNCY $104M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks

Moon River Moly: Research Note

Moon River Moly’s updated Davidson PEA lifts after-tax NPV to $1.24 billion as flotation raises tungsten output 350% and cuts molybdenum…

MRIVF $22M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks
BMBL 2026-10-21

Bumble is being taken private

Bumble agreed to a $6.05-per-share cash sale to Ithaca Holdings, 136% above its October 2 share price.

BMBL $788M
Modern Value Investing 8 clicks

GLOO, part two

Gloo faces related-party deals, insider-heavy IPO ownership, acquisition losses and $84.5 million of CEO-backed puts as it burns cash and…

GLOO $274M
Guardian Research 4 clicks

Carecloud News

CareCloud may attract a private-equity buyer after its Q3 call, with acquiring enough shares the main obstacle to a take-private deal.

CCLD $75M
Calvin Blissett 11 clicks
OSG · long

Octave Specialty Group INC

Octave Specialty Group, formerly Ambac Financial, is pitched as a long after its municipal bond insurance past.

OSG $222M
Value Investors Club 1 click

NLOP - I'm Buying Again

NLOP’s selloff after a weak KBR property sale has created a high-potential IRR entry point.

NLOP $133M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 1 click

Programmatic DSPs

Entravision’s Smadex AdTech unit generated 104% revenue growth and 378% EBIT growth, becoming the main upside driver after Meta ended its…

EVC $588M
The Mikro Kap 1 click

Obscure Stocks Annual Review

Obscure Stocks reviews 2025 positions, including ELMSQ’s illiquid bankruptcy stock and DallasNews’ Hearst buyout, while setting stricter…

ELMSQ $15M
Obscure Stocks

Return of the Power King

China Yuchai (CYD) seeks a 2026 rerating as governance normalization, global expansion, AI data-center power demand, and green-powertrain…

CYD $842M
Maius Partners 6 clicks

FrontView REIT Investment Update

FrontView REIT remains discounted to estimated NAV after a 25% gain, while 19 asset sales at 6.8% cap rates and 98% occupancy support…

FVR $446M
Real Assets, Real Value

The Priority Technology Situation

Priority Technology received an opportunistic buyout proposal, with its business better suited to remaining public absent a much higher…

PRTH $647M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 5 clicks

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