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Tuesday, October 27, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit 3 clicks

Serenity on X

I made a new “It’s All Over” portfolio today of even higher beta names than $AAOI. The requirements: 1. Fell off a cliff 2. Lower than when they announced their catalysts 3. Increasing fundamentals 4. Looks like the chart 5. Short interest spiking Stuff like $ALMU at $7, $CIFR at $8, $ASTS at $39, and some Leopold trades like $TE at $2.5, $SHAZ at $25. Not a recommendation, just curious how this performs into year end while doomposts are everywhere. Anyone got any other ones?
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Anthropic also had three run-ins with the U.S. government in 2026: 1) On February 27, the President ordered federal agencies to stop using Anthropic's models, and the Department of War designated the company a supply-chain risk to national security. Anthropic largely won its district court case, but lost a separate 2-1 ruling at the D.C. Circuit on September 25, 2026, and has asked the full court to rehear the case. 2) In June, Anthropic disabled its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for all customers when the Commerce Department restricted their export worldwide (since lifted). 3) In October, the FTC sent Anthropic a civil investigative demand (a formal request for information) on its consumer protection, data protection, and privacy practices, and the safety and security of its products. Anthropic also still owed $1.2B of its $1.5B Bartz settlement with book authors as of June 30, 2026, and faces training-data suits from music publishers, Canadian authors and news publishers, and Reddit $RDDT.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

I'm sorry it's a pretty bold claim "a better $NVR" I should elaborate. Cury looks like NVR transplanted into a structurally tighter housing market, with even stronger current unit economics. On an apples-to-apples S&P Global methodology, Cury generated 84.2% ROIC in 2025 versus 47.0% for NVR, while Cury's inventory turned 3.77x versus NVR's 3.26x. (https://t.co/pMkkNhSOWD). ROIC is preferable here to ROE or EPS because NVR's enormous buybacks reduce shares and equity and can make per-share growth and ROE look better. The opportunity set is also more extreme: Brazil's official housing deficit is 5.77 million homes, equal to 7.4% of occupied households, while Freddie Mac estimates the U.S. shortage at 3.7 million units against roughly 150.8 million housing units, or ~2.5% of housing stock. FJP Cury then concentrates affordable housing in São Paulo and Rio, precisely where affordability and housing scarcity are most acute because these are the richest cities in Brazil, while using land swaps, customer presales and subsidized MCMV financing to keep remarkably little of its own capital trapped in each project. The result is basically the feature that makes NVR exceptional pushed further: Cury currently turns each real of invested capital substantially harder, while operating against a relative housing shortage several times larger than America's.
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

My bear, base, and bull cases value Boost Run’s $BRUN stock on year-end 2026 ARR (on the same basis as the multiples of CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN), which $BRUN will report with its Q4 results in March 2027. None of the three cases adds the $160.7M/year from the July order and Cohere, since both start in 2027. The peers’ contracts that start after 2026 aren’t in their year-end ARR either, so they’re priced into the multiples instead. Since the peers’ multiples leave out the debt they’ll take on to reach year-end ARR, I hold $BRUN’s net debt at today’s $244.3M, rather than adding the lease debt from its H2 2026 build. Each case’s value is year-end ARR times the multiple, minus the $244.3M of net debt, divided by the 88.8M fully diluted shares plus any new shares from a stock sale. I start with the $231.4M of ARR from contracts already running, then add (1) the June order’s $69.2M/year if it starts by December 31 and (2) however much of the $99.4M from contracts without disclosed terms is running by then. Bear case ($4.76, -46%) The bear case assumes $BRUN has no new financing to show by its Q3 report, lessors fund 70% of the H2 2026 build instead of 79.5% (below the 72.0% lessors funded in 2025), and the June order’s November 30 start slips into 2027, so 2026 GPU spending stays at the $1.0B low end of management’s range. That implies year-end ARR of $280M, 30% short of the target, a $62.2M stock sale at $8.89/share (7.0M new shares) to cover the funding gap and three months of 2027 payments, and today’s 2.5x, for a value of $4.76/share. I give the bear case about a 20% chance. Base case ($16.17, +82%) The base case assumes $BRUN lands new lease or asset-backed financing by year-end, starts the June order on November 30, and reaches its $400M target without selling stock. That implies $400M of year-end ARR at CoreWeave’s 4.2x, the median of the three peers, for a value of $16.17/share. I use today’s median, since the base case only solves $BRUN’s own financing problem. It assumes no relief on rates or borrowing costs, which would lift the peers’ multiples too. Bull case ($19.78, +122%) The bull case assumes everything in the base case, plus relief on rates and borrowing costs that lifts the peers’ multiples. That implies $400M of year-end ARR at 5.0x, still below Nebius’s 5.9x, for a value of $19.78/share. So the bull case is really a bet on the market, not on anything more from $BRUN. From $8.89/share, you’re risking a $4.13 loss (-46%) in the unlikely bear case for a $10.89 gain (+122%) in the more likely bull case. P.S. These cases use the October 16 close and predate $BRUN’s October 26 release, which says it has closed more than $600M of non-dilutive project financing in 2026.

Investor Letters

All letters

Are Neoclouds Dead?

Neoclouds face tighter debt financing as AI infrastructure capex outruns cash flow, leaving cash-burning GPU providers more exposed than…

NBIS $46B
Daniel Romero 9 clicks

Reddit: Deep Dive Analysis

Reddit generated $805 million in Q2 2026 revenue, 95% from ads, but slowing Google search referrals expose AI-driven traffic and…

RDDT $26B
Hated Moats 6 clicks

The Data Center Bridge

Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed…

IREN $11B
CV's Substack 16 clicks
SBAC · long

Sba Communications CORP

SBA Communications trades at 14.9x forward AFFOPS, near a record low, despite being pitched as the market’s cleanest tower operator.

SBAC $20B
Value Investors Club

Amkor Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amkor's Q3 sales were flat at $1.991 billion as computing and automotive/industrial growth offset a 27% communications decline; Q4 sales…

AMKR $10B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11B
Bearstone 8 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $22B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $81B
Doomberg 13 clicks

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