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Monday, October 26, 2026

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The Data Center Bridge

Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed contracts, but 10 cannot do so today.

FRMI $1.6B
CV's Substack 16 clicks

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@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

AI labs and data labeling companies (firms that turn experts’ knowledge into training data for the labs) could make my $12-19M sale range for Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) look conservative. My previous write-up’s sale comps were five cybersecurity companies buying small startups that detect, stop, or recover from ransomware, and I valued a Nubeva sale at $12-19M, the low end of those deals. AI labs and data labeling companies would widen the set of buyers beyond cybersecurity companies, but I found none that has bought a ransomware recovery company like Nubeva. The closest deals were for a stake in a ransomware recovery company, malware data, and specialist teams: → Microsoft $MSFT: Made an equity investment in Veeam, a data protection and ransomware recovery company, in February 2025, as part of a partnership to build AI-based threat detection and other Microsoft AI services into Veeam’s products. → Google $GOOGL: Owns VirusTotal, a malware-scanning site it bought in 2012, and Mandiant, the incident-response firm it bought for $5.4B in 2022. Its experimental Sec-Gemini model, introduced in April 2025, draws on Mandiant’s threat intelligence data. → OpenAI: Agreed to buy Promptfoo in March 2026 for an undisclosed price. Promptfoo, which tests AI systems for security holes, was valued at $86M after its July 2025 funding round, per PitchBook. → Mercor (a data labeling company): Agreed to buy Deeptune, which builds practice environments for AI agents, in July 2026, months after Andreessen Horowitz led Deeptune’s $43M Series A. The two 2026 deals didn’t disclose prices, and Mandiant and Veeam are far larger businesses than Nubeva, so I can’t put a new number on a sale. Still, my $12-19M range is probably conservative now, since it only counted cybersecurity companies as buyers, and an AI lab or data labeling company would be paying for Nubeva’s engineers and model rather than its ~$500K of FY2026 revenue. But an AI buyer wouldn’t get patents on what it’s paying for. Nubeva’s patents would cover how it recovers files and how it detects hidden encryption, but it won’t patent its binary analysis (figuring out what malware programs do) at all, and CEO Randy Chou explained why: “Anything you patent, that means you have to show how you did it. If you show how you did it, well, somebody can train an LLM to go do it.” So the model is only worth what Nubeva can prove it does, through a signed contract, a named partner, or test results.

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

KNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 7 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals’ How Mine mill reached 55,000 tonnes per month, 36% above prior capacity, while a proposed $30 million Ecobank facility…

NAMM $48M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Bimergen Energy: Research Flash

Bimergen Energy filed for a Texas retail-power license to supply data centers directly and gained eligibility for federal contracts through…

BESS $13M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

MYR Group q3’26 Earnings Preview

MYR Group’s Q3 2026 preview cites data-center and power transmission demand, with long-term service agreements supporting margin growth and…

MYRG $4B
Monte Independent Investment Research 6 clicks

Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 34 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 5 clicks

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