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Monday, October 26, 2026

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The Data Center Bridge

Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed contracts, but 10 cannot do so today.

FRMI $1.6B
CV's Substack 16 clicks

From X

@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN said on October 26 that it has closed "more than $600 million in non-dilutive project financing" so far in 2026. In my October 19 update, I said the stock depends less on demand than on whether $BRUN can finance the next ~$1B of GPUs without selling shares at beaten-down prices. The release also says: → $BRUN has established "a fully funded runway to accelerate customer deployments through the fourth quarter of 2026," with additional financing "proceeding as planned." → $BRUN delivered the first phase of a multi-phase project to "a leading AI research and product company," which matches its $471.7M May 2026 contract with Thinking Machines Lab (Mira Murati's AI startup). → Several more projects are "nearing hand-off in the coming weeks." → Founder and CEO Andrew Karos: "Customer payments exceed our debt payments every month." The $600M+ is YTD, and lessors funded $268.3M of new GPU leases in H1 2026 alone. So if those leases count toward the $600M+, $BRUN has closed more than $331.7M since June 30, about half to almost two-thirds of the $527-686M of new leases I estimated its H2 2026 build needs. The release doesn't say what the financing costs or how much of it closed since June 30. However, the Q3 10-Q, expected in mid-November, should disclose how much $BRUN leased in Q3 and at what rate. If the 10-Q confirms the $600M+, I'd drop the $62.2M stock sale from my bear case, and the question shifts from whether $BRUN can fund its build to what the new debt costs.
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Merion Road and Blue Hill are going activist at United Bancorporation of Alabama $UBAB, looking for board seats. They see UBAB at a key moment, needing better capital allocation, tighter expenses, and a clearer strategy. Still, the board hasn't acted on their proposals despite years of engagement. They're also looking for a $40m tender (~17% of the market cap). These guys hold just 2%, so UBAB basically replied, 'yeah, that's not going to happen,' but this ECIP winner could indeed do more.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

KNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 8 clicks
FOUR · long

Shift4 Payments INC

Shift4 Payments trades at roughly 5 times a $7.50 2029 free-cash-flow-per-share estimate after stock compensation.

FOUR $3.2B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Portfolio Update November 2025

Portfolio gained 0.6% in November and 22.9% in 2025, adding Floor & Decor and Copart while exiting West Pharmaceutical, Kraft Heinz, Novo…

FND $5B
D Invests

National Beverage Update

National Beverage’s rare share repurchase is framed as a buy signal, with 50% upside projected.

FIZZ $3.3B
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 3 clicks

FrontView REIT Investment Update

FrontView REIT remains discounted to estimated NAV after a 25% gain, while 19 asset sales at 6.8% cap rates and 98% occupancy support…

FVR $434M
Real Assets, Real Value

[$MNDY] Monday.com

Monday.com combines work management, CRM, Dev and Service on a flexible core platform, with 90% gross margins and AI disruption risk…

MNDY $4.1B
Lewistown Capital

The Priority Technology Situation

Priority Technology received an opportunistic buyout proposal, with its business better suited to remaining public absent a much higher…

PRTH $647M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 5 clicks

Tis The (Earnings) Season

Argentine banks, tariff-exposed stocks and Customer’s Bancorp anchor an earnings-season watchlist after Milei’s election victory,…

CUBI $2.9B
Cluseau Research 3 clicks

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