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Monday, October 26, 2026

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The Data Center Bridge

Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed contracts, but 10 cannot do so today.

FRMI $1.6B
CV's Substack 16 clicks

From X

@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

Four Tree Island Advisory is once again pushing against DoubleU Games’ $11.25 per ADS bid for DoubleDown Interactive $DDI, calling it far too low given DDI’s recent performance. DDI has since delivered two strong quarters, with cash per ADS rising to over $11.18. Using Playtika’s ~4.3x EBITDA multiple (despite Playtika’s weaker balance sheet, higher leverage, and declining EBITDA), this would imply roughly $26.40 per ADS (more than double today’s price), which Four Tree Island still frames as a conservative floor.
@StableBread 5 clicks

Fajasy on X

I went through every Boost Run $BRUN contract with disclosed terms to see how much of its $2.6B+ of total contract value (TCV) they cover. Cohere, the Canadian developer of AI models for businesses and governments, agreed on September 30, 2026, to pay $BRUN $525.6M over the agreement’s term for $NVDA’s GB300 NVL72 racks, each with 72 Blackwell Ultra GPUs. Part of the $525.6M is a prepayment $BRUN hasn’t disclosed. But if we follow the 22% average $BRUN says its prepayments run, the prepayment would be ~$116M. Each rack’s term runs 60 months, and the first racks should start in Q2 2027. Cohere can terminate and get back everything it prepaid if it hasn’t accepted a minimum number of racks by July 15, 2027. $BRUN has disclosed terms for seven contracts, and the two largest are with Cohere and Thinking Machines Lab, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati: → Fluidstack (November 6, 2025): $63.6M over 24 months, or $31.8M/year. → 1,280 B300s, Charlotte (March 15, 2026): $116.1M over 36 months, or $38.7M/year. → 256 H200s, Raleigh (March 16, 2026): $3.7M over 12 months, or $3.7M/year. → Thinking Machines Lab (May 21, 2026): $471.7M over 36 months, or $157.2M/year. → June order, 240 GPU servers (June 8, 2026): $207.6M over 36 months, or $69.2M/year. → July order, 1,536 B300s (July 9, 2026): $222.5M over 48 months, or $55.6M/year. → Cohere (September 30, 2026): $525.6M over 60 months, or $105.1M/year. --- → Total: $1.61B, or $461.3M/year. Unnamed customers are labeled by what they rent, including $NVDA’s current B300 (Blackwell Ultra) and older H200 GPUs. $BRUN’s TCV is over $2.6B, so the other $989M+ is in deals without disclosed terms. The October 6 release calls the $2.6B “total revenue customers have committed to pay,” but the August 14 Q2 deck also counted renewal options and LOIs in TCV, and $BRUN hasn’t said whether the definition changed. So the conservative read counts only the seven contracts with disclosed terms, worth $1.61B, not the $2.6B headline.

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

KNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 6 clicks
WRBY · long

Warby Parker

Warby Parker's $25 valuation does not capture potential upside from smartglasses alongside its core omnichannel eyewear business.

WRBY $3.2B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

MYR Group q3’26 Earnings Preview

MYR Group’s Q3 2026 preview cites data-center and power transmission demand, with long-term service agreements supporting margin growth and…

MYRG $4B
Monte Independent Investment Research 5 clicks

Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 34 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 5 clicks

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