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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

The Cable One deal is getting messier by the day. The company had lined up a $1.3bn financing (backed by GTCR) to buy the rest of MBI and pay off its B-4 TL. CoBank then bought ~$90mm of the RCF the day before the deal was set to close (according to Cable One) and sued to block it the next day, claiming cable was insolvent and overpaying. Now a judge has granted a TRO. Bear in mind, all of this is happening while the business keeps shrinking.. $CABO
@convequity

Convequity on X

$TSEM remains one of our highest-conviction holdings, even after we trimmed the position in our 4Q26 rebalance. We wanted to keep Tower at its 6.1% portfolio weight despite a roughly 25% fall in its share price over the past quarter. To make room for new holdings, we trimmed the weight to 4.75% and banked some profits. With SpaceX ($SPCX) also becoming a larger holding, we are limiting further additions to avoid concentrating the portfolio in a few companies. Our confidence in Tower's technology remains strong. We think Tower's competitive advantage comes from combining chips that send and receive data using light with the electronic chips that drive and control them. Next-generation optical connections require these components to exchange more data within a smaller space. Hybrid bonding achieves this by joining the chips through densely packed electrical connections that move large amounts of data in a compact package. In our view, Tower's capabilities here are effectively unmatched among Western suppliers. Tower has also added manufacturing capacity more successfully than we expected. It can fulfill more customer orders itself, leaving less business for $GFS. Customers have less reason to switch to a supplier whose technology they consider weaker when Tower can meet their needs, so the capacity expansion strengthens our Tower thesis and weakens the case for competitors that rely on orders Tower cannot accommodate.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The CEO of Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) expects its third AI patent to be approved within two months, calling the rest “signature paperwork.” Nubeva, a ransomware recovery company, has been granted two of the four AI patents it applied for in 2024. CEO Randy Chou said in his October 5, 2026 interview on Nubeva’s YouTube channel that the patent office had sent an amendment on the third patent that week, which Nubeva plans to accept. The third patent covers detecting “nefarious or improper encryption” inside a binary (a compiled program in machine code), meaning Nubeva can tell when malware is encrypting files, even when the encryption is hidden. Spotting hidden encryption is also what drew AI data labeling companies (firms that turn experts’ knowledge into training data for AI labs) to Nubeva, Chou said. Nubeva hasn’t heard back on the fourth patent. Chou said the patent office told the company that AI patent applications are now taking much longer, with examiners reading filings as long as 150 pages vs. the ~30 pages he typically files (probably because of AI writing the patents). So the fourth patent, the last one Chou wants granted before pursuing a potential partnership or sale, is just a waiting game.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 8 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals’ How Mine mill reached 55,000 tonnes per month, 36% above prior capacity, while a proposed $30 million Ecobank facility…

NAMM $45M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Bimergen Energy: Research Flash

Bimergen Energy filed for a Texas retail-power license to supply data centers directly and gained eligibility for federal contracts through…

BESS $15M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $22B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $81B
Doomberg 12 clicks

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