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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $11B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP 3 clicks

A Capital on X

Interesting special situation in $AKER.NO, which owns ~23% of Nscale. Despite the carnage in neoclouds, the FT reported last week that Nscale may still be targeting a $30–35bn IPO before year-end. What makes this interesting is the valuation disconnect. At ~NOK 1,150, backing out Aker’s other holdings and applying its historical ~22% HoldCo discount implies an ~$11bn valuation for Nscale. Below its $14.6bn March round and well below the proposed IPO range. In September, Third Point led a $3.36bn pre-IPO convertible financing alongside Nvidia, Apollo, Citadel and others. The notes reportedly convert at a double-digit discount to the IPO price, with a $30bn valuation cap on the conversion price. Not exactly a group of unsophisticated investors… At a $25–30bn IPO, I get ~27–39% upside assuming some HoldCo discount compression. Even at a $15bn IPO, the downside looks relatively contained under a historical discount assumption. Obviously the IPO could slip, financing and execution risks are enormous, and the broader neocloud unwind isn’t helping. But you can partially hedge the sector exposure with $CRWV / $NBIS shorts, leaving a more isolated bet on the IPO valuation and HoldCo discount...
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN said on October 26 that it has closed "more than $600 million in non-dilutive project financing" so far in 2026. In my October 19 update, I said the stock depends less on demand than on whether $BRUN can finance the next ~$1B of GPUs without selling shares at beaten-down prices. The release also says: → $BRUN has established "a fully funded runway to accelerate customer deployments through the fourth quarter of 2026," with additional financing "proceeding as planned." → $BRUN delivered the first phase of a multi-phase project to "a leading AI research and product company," which matches its $471.7M May 2026 contract with Thinking Machines Lab (Mira Murati's AI startup). → Several more projects are "nearing hand-off in the coming weeks." → Founder and CEO Andrew Karos: "Customer payments exceed our debt payments every month." The $600M+ is YTD, and lessors funded $268.3M of new GPU leases in H1 2026 alone. So if those leases count toward the $600M+, $BRUN has closed more than $331.7M since June 30, about half to almost two-thirds of the $527-686M of new leases I estimated its H2 2026 build needs. The release doesn't say what the financing costs or how much of it closed since June 30. However, the Q3 10-Q, expected in mid-November, should disclose how much $BRUN leased in Q3 and at what rate. If the 10-Q confirms the $600M+, I'd drop the $62.2M stock sale from my bear case, and the question shifts from whether $BRUN can fund its build to what the new debt costs.

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.6B
Bearstone 6 clicks
EXPE · long

Expedia Group INC

Expedia Group, one of the largest online travel companies, has roughly 3.6 million lodging properties and is expanding internationally.

EXPE $34B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $30B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $7B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.2B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $23B
TSOH Investment Research 28 clicks

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