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Sunday, October 25, 2026

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@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

$EVLV i'm getting something like -.2/sh of real earnigns right now, and something in that ball park for next year as a base case. The downside is significant PT <3/sh if they are unable to grow into their margins, or face continuous pressure from opengate. If they succeed (let's say 25% growth and margin improvement), i also see limited upside: Here's how i get my Earnings number: Adj. EBITDA: +$15M Stock comp: -$23M Fleet wear (D&A + retired units): -$29M Interest, growth capex, net one-offs: -$3M earnings of about -$40M, or -$0.20/sh Current management missed 3 of 4 gross margin guides, and the promised shift toward subscription reversed twice. Recent trends: Revenue +34%, but ARR only +20% (was 34% five quarters ago). Backlog (RPO) up only mid-teens Gross margin 58% → 50% in two years New ARR per unit added: ~$17K in 2024 → ~$10K now Here's how i get limited upside in the bull case: revenue grow 25% a year to about $557M in 2031 adj. EBITDA margin rises from 8.5% to 25% by 2031, then 27% by terminal year 2040 or so. SBC falls to 5–7% of revenue and fleet wear to 10–12%; Assuming a 9% required return, i am getting around 4.5/sh which is the current stock price. Are they subscale? Don't they have like 9k units deployed? That's subscale? What exactly are the "scale" advantages for this type of company? How good is their product vs opengate as a total cost of ownership? doesn't look good for evolv. Says Evolv is 5x the price over 4 years but little differentiation in terms of throughput and accuracy. Why would anyone buy evolv. The school contracts covered by the FTC settlement date from April 2022 through June 2023, and on 4-year terms they renew in 2026–27. We will just see what happens thousands of units are up for renewal or if there is some switching that happens.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Ever since I started following $CCLD I thought it was a great LBO candidate. This thing belongs in a PE portfolio and whoever LBOs will do very well, I would love to participate. $85m market cap, around $120m EV roughly. Can support a lot of leverage due to subscription/reoccurring cash flows. It is cheap in absolute (circa 3x FCF). It is at 1/4 the average multiple arguably worse peers have transacted at (maybe even less by now). Long runway for continued acquisition playbook (management said constantly evaluating 2k opportunities). Acquisition playbook targets distressed RCM companies, cuts costs due to CCLD offshore cheap labor and cross and upsells to existing sticky customers, $CCLD offers a broad suite of products and are implementing adn devloping AI products. Acquisitions earn 20-40% in 6 months. Prices paid are .5-1x Revenues way towards the lower end. Risk: 2026 guidance requires aggresive H2 and cybersecurity incident If anyone is interested in a LBO or pushing for a sale, please reach out, I have done and will do extensive diligence.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

I listened to all Whitney Wolfe Heard interviews, that gave me a lot of confidence she would/will improve the consumer experience relentlessly, the business wasn’t/isn’t declining as much as perceived or sentiment makes it out to be. Even if it continued melting at the current pace and never growing the FCF would create immense value for equity holders. I don’t think it will continue melting though as they update and iterate on the experience and resume marketing spend. I think resuming marketing spend would be a big catalyst in terms of returning to growth that wasn’t reflected in the stock . $BMBL

Investor Letters

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Unicycive (UNCY):

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical…

UNCY $104M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks

Moon River Moly: Research Note

Moon River Moly’s updated Davidson PEA lifts after-tax NPV to $1.24 billion as flotation raises tungsten output 350% and cuts molybdenum…

MRIVF $16M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks

GLOO, part two

Gloo faces related-party deals, insider-heavy IPO ownership, acquisition losses and $84.5 million of CEO-backed puts as it burns cash and…

GLOO $269M
Guardian Research 4 clicks

Carecloud News

CareCloud may attract a private-equity buyer after its Q3 call, with acquiring enough shares the main obstacle to a take-private deal.

CCLD $74M
Calvin Blissett 11 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $492M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks
EVC · long

Entravision Communications

Entravision Communications, up fourfold year to date, is pitched as an undervalued growth business emerging from a troubled parent…

EVC $575M
Value Investors Club

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $292M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks

Twenty Years in the Dark

Tower Properties, $TPRP, went dark after a 2006 squeeze-out cut holders below 300, leaving a Kemper-controlled apartment and office…

TPRP $128M
Orphan REITs 5 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $787M
TSOH Investment Research 12 clicks

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