Sunday, October 25, 2026

@TheBenSchmark Oct 23

JabroniCoin.USD on X

BMO on $CENX: “Discussions centered on tariff uncertainty, Oklahoma smelter progress, current operations, improving free cash flow conversion & Hawesville monetization. Meanwhile, with CENX trading at 2.5x current spot-based EBITDA, valuation is compelling in our view.” 2.5X! https://t.co/3jKwcyjheE

@TimyanBankAlert Oct 23 2 clicks

Timyan Bank Alert on X

@trades021 I think Curtis at $BHB would like to be an acquirer. $LFGP is a logical target but Josephine will only sell if she can run a combined bank. Curtis has other targets. I’ve been a small holder only from back when Joe Murphy more thoughtfully ran this bank. He retired in 2013.

@StableBread Oct 23 4 clicks

Fajasy on X

Here’s where BWX Technologies’ $BWXT stock could be by the end of 2027, 15 months from now, in my bear, base, and bull cases. I value each case on 2028 adjusted EBITDA, since the market will be pricing 2028 numbers by then. For net debt, I use today’s $1.65B minus the $750M from its medical isotope sale, or $0.9B. To stay conservative, I don’t credit the FCF $BWXT earns between now and the end of 2027. Management plans to spend the cash, including on acquisitions, but hasn’t said how much or on what, so I leave out both the cash and any EBITDA acquisitions could potentially add. Therefore, each case’s value is 2028 adjusted EBITDA times the multiple, minus the $0.9B of net debt, over 92.0M diluted shares (its convertible notes only dilute above $262.51). Bear case ($118, -19%) The bear case assumes budgets slip (the government is running on a continuing resolution through December 11), the terms of its Janus contract (the Army’s microreactor program for military bases) disappoint, and new-build orders arrive later than John MacQuarrie, president of Commercial Operations, expects. That implies only 5%/year adjusted EBITDA growth to $735M in 2028, and a multiple of 16x, slightly below $BWXT’s 16.6x at the end of 2023, for a value of $118/share. Base case ($162, +11%, most likely) The base case assumes $BWXT delivers its 2027 framework (high-single-digit growth to $720M of adjusted EBITDA) and grows 10% in 2028 to $790M as new-build revenue starts. That implies the multiple holds at 20x, near today’s, for a value of $162/share. $BWXT’s own 2030 plan goes further. Today’s $15.0B EV is 13.0x the $1.15B midpoint of its 2030 adjusted EBITDA target. If $BWXT hits that midpoint, trades at 18x instead of the base case’s 20x, and runs at 2.5x net leverage (~$2.9B of net debt) after deploying its capital, the stock would be worth $194/share at the end of 2029. With ~$4/share of total dividends through 2029, that’s a 9.9%/year return from $145.70. But getting from the base case’s $790M in 2028 to $1.15B in 2030 takes ~21%/year growth, more than double the 2028 pace, so the new orders and acquisitions outside $BWXT’s predictable core (the programs backed by backlog and long-term contracts) have to show up. Bull case ($204, +40%) The bull case assumes a new-build order lands by early 2027, $BWXT signs a Janus contract on par with microreactor startup Radiant’s (up to $750M), and margins rise toward 20%. That implies adjusted EBITDA of $820M in 2028 and a re-rating to 24x, just under the 24.8x of Curtiss-Wright $CW today, for a value of $204/share. Notably, none of the three cases considers a commercial BANR (microreactor) sale, a Wyoming TRISO fuel plant, a battleship reactor, or a data center customer, so at $145.70/share, you’re getting commercial microreactors and data centers as a free option.

@TimyanBankAlert Oct 23

Timyan Bank Alert on X

Adams owns more stock than any board member than Robinson. The $CIBN board largely are not owners and their interests are not aligned with ours. Gary Frankhouse doesn’t own a single share.

@TimyanBankAlert Oct 23

Timyan Bank Alert on X

Like last year, I will get my brokerage firms to assign me the proxy voting rights and then I will assign them to Mr Robinson who will vote them at the meeting. Since Ohio has cumulative voting, I’m confident Mr Adams will soon be rightfully seated on the board of $CIBN

@TimyanBankAlert Oct 23

Timyan Bank Alert on X

Upcoming proxy event in Bucyrus at $CIBN Last year, in spite of the board’s wasting shareholder 💰 on lawyers to keep Mark Robinson off the board he was overwhelmingly elected. This year, $CIBN is again spending our cash to keep John Adams off our board. https://t.co/Xj637bWkOX

@P_Remarks Oct 23 1 click

Prepared Remarks on X

$SE is a war stock https://t.co/xymdXPMXxB https://t.co/CYa0ADMZMP

@stockgutter Oct 23 1 click

SG on X

another bombed out sector that seems ripe for a turn is solar. My faves here (which I own in buy-writes) are $FSLR and $NXT. https://t.co/1Me2lZXTcs https://t.co/CavqJ2OWhe