Sunday, October 25, 2026

@StableBread Oct 23 4 clicks

Fajasy on X

Here’s where BWX Technologies’ $BWXT stock could be by the end of 2027, 15 months from now, in my bear, base, and bull cases. I value each case on 2028 adjusted EBITDA, since the market will be pricing 2028 numbers by then. For net debt, I use today’s $1.65B minus the $750M from its medical isotope sale, or $0.9B. To stay conservative, I don’t credit the FCF $BWXT earns between now and the end of 2027. Management plans to spend the cash, including on acquisitions, but hasn’t said how much or on what, so I leave out both the cash and any EBITDA acquisitions could potentially add. Therefore, each case’s value is 2028 adjusted EBITDA times the multiple, minus the $0.9B of net debt, over 92.0M diluted shares (its convertible notes only dilute above $262.51). Bear case ($118, -19%) The bear case assumes budgets slip (the government is running on a continuing resolution through December 11), the terms of its Janus contract (the Army’s microreactor program for military bases) disappoint, and new-build orders arrive later than John MacQuarrie, president of Commercial Operations, expects. That implies only 5%/year adjusted EBITDA growth to $735M in 2028, and a multiple of 16x, slightly below $BWXT’s 16.6x at the end of 2023, for a value of $118/share. Base case ($162, +11%, most likely) The base case assumes $BWXT delivers its 2027 framework (high-single-digit growth to $720M of adjusted EBITDA) and grows 10% in 2028 to $790M as new-build revenue starts. That implies the multiple holds at 20x, near today’s, for a value of $162/share. $BWXT’s own 2030 plan goes further. Today’s $15.0B EV is 13.0x the $1.15B midpoint of its 2030 adjusted EBITDA target. If $BWXT hits that midpoint, trades at 18x instead of the base case’s 20x, and runs at 2.5x net leverage (~$2.9B of net debt) after deploying its capital, the stock would be worth $194/share at the end of 2029. With ~$4/share of total dividends through 2029, that’s a 9.9%/year return from $145.70. But getting from the base case’s $790M in 2028 to $1.15B in 2030 takes ~21%/year growth, more than double the 2028 pace, so the new orders and acquisitions outside $BWXT’s predictable core (the programs backed by backlog and long-term contracts) have to show up. Bull case ($204, +40%) The bull case assumes a new-build order lands by early 2027, $BWXT signs a Janus contract on par with microreactor startup Radiant’s (up to $750M), and margins rise toward 20%. That implies adjusted EBITDA of $820M in 2028 and a re-rating to 24x, just under the 24.8x of Curtiss-Wright $CW today, for a value of $204/share. Notably, none of the three cases considers a commercial BANR (microreactor) sale, a Wyoming TRISO fuel plant, a battleship reactor, or a data center customer, so at $145.70/share, you’re getting commercial microreactors and data centers as a free option.

@P_Remarks Oct 23 1 click

Prepared Remarks on X

$SE is a war stock https://t.co/xymdXPMXxB https://t.co/CYa0ADMZMP

@stockgutter Oct 23 1 click

SG on X

another bombed out sector that seems ripe for a turn is solar. My faves here (which I own in buy-writes) are $FSLR and $NXT. https://t.co/1Me2lZXTcs https://t.co/CavqJ2OWhe

@marginofdanger Oct 23 2 clicks

marginofdanger on X

$FPH guidance revision, as a result of a timing issue at the Great Park, should come as no surprise to anyone. Rates have moved materially higher.

@marginofdanger Oct 23 1 click

marginofdanger on X

$CBBI increases dividend by 20% cc: @Ron284Ron

@calvinblissett Oct 23

Calvin Blissett on X

Low liquidity is often seen as an absolute disadvantage in investing, like most things it is more nuanced than that. What if it can actually become an independent driver of returns, creating a Lollapalooza affect for the company who's value of float is increasing due to fundamentals: On liquidity and float: The users are buyers and sellers, and a connection is a possible trade between them. As the float's value rises, more people can take part: bigger funds, index trackers and market makers. Each newcomer adds a possible counterparty for everyone already trading. So, the number of possible trades, which is what liquidity really is, grows roughly with the square of the participants, not in a straight line. It also feeds itself, like any network. Liquidity attracts traders, because they can get in and out cheaply. Those traders add more liquidity, which pulls in more traders. Bid-ask spreads narrow, which lowers trading costs and brings in more volume. The majority of this was eloquently articulated by one of the most formidable minds I am aware of @sammutgabi. Our investment strategy leads us into a fair amount of low liquidity names, where the dynamic mentioned above can spark tantalizing returns such as $RYSAS $RYGO $RYSKF $RYSAS.IS