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Saturday, October 24, 2026

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@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$NTWK: $7.86, ~$94M mkt cap, ~$19M net cash, ~$75M EV. FY26 (June) was a record: revenue $74.4M, adj EBITDA $9.2M. FY27 guide is $10.5M to $11.4M of EBITDA, so ~7x. NetSol writes the loan and lease software auto captives, banks and equipment lessors run on, the kind of system a lender changes once a decade. The founding Ghauri family runs it and owns ~14-15%. Hidden asset: its majority-owned Pakistan sub, NetSol PK, is separately listed on the PSX at ~$38M, about 40% of NTWK's whole market cap. The stock has nearly tripled off its $2.73 low, so this isn't a cigar butt anymore, you're paying for the growth guide now. Risks: most of the cash sits offshore, minority holders take almost half of net income, Pakistan FX and politics, lumpy license deals. Size it small.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$DH: $1.08, ~$156M mkt cap, ~$23M net cash. Guiding $57M to $59M of adj EBITDA for 2026, so ~2.3x EV/EBITDA and ~18% trailing FCF yield. Definitive sells data on hospitals and doctors to pharma and medtech sales teams. Revenue is shrinking (-9% in Q2) and the stock went from a $27 IPO in 2021 to about a dollar. Now the controller wants it back. Advent (58.5%) offered $1.02 cash on Sept 1, and founder Jason Krantz (17.6%) would roll his stake. The stock trades above the bid, so the market expects the special committee (Rothschild advising) to get more. $1.02 for a 26% margin data business at ~2.3x EBITDA is a lowball. Nasdaq's sub-$1 cure deadline is Dec 15. Risk: a controller can wait you out, and nothing is signed.
@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$RNGR: $14.71, ~$345M mkt cap, ~$395M EV after the STEP deal. Q2 adj EBITDA $28.6M, so ~3.5x run-rate EBITDA. Ranger runs well-service rigs, wireline and coiled tubing in the Permian and Bakken: the crews that keep old oil wells producing. Unsexy, but maintenance work holds up better than drilling. Capital allocation is the pitch. They've bought back ~4.6M shares since 2023 at ~$11 avg, pay a dividend, and just bought STEP's US coiled tubing assets for $27.5M, ~2.5x expected 2027 EBITDA. Chevron gave them 3 more hybrid ECHO rigs in July. Mgmt is targeting $100M+ of EBITDA against a ~$395M EV. Risk: H1 FCF was negative because customers paid slow (receivables went from $78M to $124M). When that cash comes home, FCF jumps.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Can Boost Run $BRUN borrow the $527-686M it needs for H2 2026 without selling stock? CFO Erik Guckel said on the Q2 call that $BRUN is working on new ways to finance the build: “We continue to innovate on financing structures beyond the equipment financing approach used to date and expect to provide additional color and progress on this over the next quarter.” The October 8 prospectus amendment names asset-backed securitizations (bonds backed by its GPUs and customer contracts) and rated parent-level debt as new forms of financing $BRUN expects to access. But I found no new facility, lender, or term sheet in its filings or press releases from August 14 to October 16. Founder and CEO Andrew Karos acknowledged on the Q2 call that there’s “a big gap in the market right now” in financing for customers without investment-grade credit. $BRUN’s named customers are private AI startups without investment-grade ratings, so its contracts are harder to borrow against. For comparison, $NBIS’s first secured loan on July 17, $775M at 2.50 points over SOFR (a short-term benchmark rate), was backed by GPUs running under a contract with an investment-grade customer. Thinking Machines Lab, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, alone accounts for $157.2M/year, 52.3% of what $BRUN’s disclosed contracts should bring in by year-end, and was still in talks to raise $5-6B as of early September. I found no announcement that it closed the round through October 16, so lenders financing its GPUs are also betting that the round closes. Karos also mentioned $NVDA’s AI Compute Partnership (AICP), a program NVIDIA launched in July to backstop GPU clouds’ clusters with its investment-grade credit, for a share of their revenue. However, NVIDIA paused some of its AICP deals over antitrust concerns, the Wall Street Journal reported on August 27. NVIDIA said the program is still in place, but The Information, a tech news site, reported on October 5 that NVIDIA is rethinking its revenue-sharing deals with GPU clouds. Still, lessors funded 79.5% of the H1 2026 build for GPUs already rented out on contracts worth ~1.4x their cost, so I believe $BRUN most likely borrows the $527-686M without selling stock. The Q3 report (mid-November) will show how much $BRUN leased in Q3. If lessors funded 70% of the H2 2026 build instead of 79.5%, $BRUN would need $199-259M of its own cash for the build, more than its $191.8M of pro forma cash. Covering the ~$7-67M gap and keeping three months of the ~$221M of 2027 payments in cash would take a $62-122M stock sale. At $8.89/share, the sale would mean 7.0-13.8M new shares, 8.4-16.4% of the 83.8M outstanding. So the stock at $8.89 depends less on demand or the book $BRUN has signed than on whether it can finance the next ~$1B of GPUs without selling shares at beaten-down prices.

Investor Letters

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Moon River Moly: Research Note

Moon River Moly’s updated Davidson PEA lifts after-tax NPV to $1.24 billion as flotation raises tungsten output 350% and cuts molybdenum…

MRIVF $16M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks

GLOO, part two

Gloo faces related-party deals, insider-heavy IPO ownership, acquisition losses and $84.5 million of CEO-backed puts as it burns cash and…

GLOO $291M
Guardian Research 4 clicks

Carecloud News

CareCloud may attract a private-equity buyer after its Q3 call, with acquiring enough shares the main obstacle to a take-private deal.

CCLD $74M
Calvin Blissett 10 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $492M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $292M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks
BW · short

Babcock & Wilcox

Babcock & Wilcox is priced for AI power demand despite a one-time related-party project, with FY2028 EBITDA 35% below consensus implying…

BW $618M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

The Mispriced Assets Super Bowl

Groupon, Corsair and StepStone report within 15 minutes, setting up volatility between Groupon’s after-hours release and its Friday morning…

GRPN $649M
Mispriced Assets

A Venezuela Lottery Ticket for 41 Cents

Lionheart Holdings’ 41-cent CUBWW warrants hinge on a SPAC merger valuing KEO Energy’s Venezuelan PetroUrdaneta stake at $1 billion, versus…

CUB $286M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 9 clicks

Earnings Week in the Graveyard

Empire State Realty Trust cut Observatory NOI guidance to $55 million from $87 to $92 million after Q2 NOI fell roughly 50%, reducing Core…

KANP $55M
Orphan REITs

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