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Saturday, October 24, 2026

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@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

Comedian talking sense about $JMKE. Just like how Wendy's went to shredded lettuce instead of Iceburg, $JMKE sandwich quality started deteriorating 2 years ago according to this guy. Not counting them out, but not looking great. I made this mistake of buying $JOAN after it IPO'd. Amazing growth, amazing margins, 12x P/E! Of course it was being undermaintained and quality quickly deteriorated post-covid. Beware of private equity and short-term oriented management teams.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

$INMD has 8.5/sh of cash, a 14.5/sh stock price, and around my estimate of .7/sh of eps after accounting for capital requirements and excluding interest income. If this is right, that means it's trading around 8x p/e (6/.7) for just the operating business. Even if you thought it should only be 4x p/e (3/.7), that's 3$ of downside (20%) on a 14.5/sh stock. Vice versa, if you thought it should be 12x p/e (8.4/.7), that's 2.4$ of upside (16%) on a 14.5/sh stock. Suppose a rational stock market investor requires a 9% return, and if he valued a stock at 8x p/e, that multiple would be consistent with a perpetual earnings decline around 3% annually. For a 4x p/e that rate would be closer to 13%. Should we value INMD's future cash stream at an 8x NTM P/E, above, or below? INMD's earnings seems to be declining much faster than 3% annually, even faster than 11% annually. There seems to be a lot of competition, a lot of issues with their strategy, constnat negative revisions, constant missed promises and dissapointments. Wonder what's going on underneath
@blondesnmoney 1 click

Cluseau Investments on X

Disclaimer: I have sold this position and have no view on the valuation or future prospects My craziest OTC adventure this year was discovering a single-asset refinery that sells Jet Fuel to the US Military. It sounds kinda crazy, but it's the exact type of ridiculous setup funny enough to look into. In July, refining crack spreads were blowing out, and nearly every refiner $PBF, $PARR, $VLO, $PSX were steamrolling. I wanted some exposure, but I felt sheepish chasing names that were already tearing it up. I started looking at smaller refiners, but nearly everyone was in the 3x - 5x forward earnings range, not expensive, but for a cyclical, also not really that cheap. It turns out that, aside from the megacap refiners and $PARR, there's only one other US listed microcap refiner, Blue Dolphin Energy $BDCO. The stock is heavily insider owned, and at the time, was trading at just over 4x Q1 earnings ($0.99). Crack spreads are publicly viewable, and other refiners were demolishing estimates - $PARR came in at $11 in Q2, triple Q1, so it didn't take too much math to realize BDCO's Q2 was gonna be strong given jet fuel prices, and that the stock was potentially trading under 1x forward earnings. Of course, it's an OTC name with limited liquidity so you can't realize size it up, but how often do you get a chance to buy someone who supplies jet fuel to the Department of Defense under 1x annualized earnings? It was almost comedic, the story was funny enough to swallow the OTC stigma and just pick up a little bit up. About a week later, Q2 results came in at $1.19 (putting 1H earnings at ($2.18), and the market suddenly realized a stock trading at $4 on $2.18 of two quarter's EPS was just too cheap. The stock hit $18 today - I've been trimming since entry and am finally out. It was a tiny position, but I continue to find it ridiculous that these OTC setups exist. With a small amount of capital and a love for reading filings, you can probably find a slew of OTC names that are actually decently profitable that are simply too small for larger investors to take a stab at. I have no position in BDCO and have no opinion on it, $4 and $18 are totally different prices, but the fact this setup existed and somehow flew under the radar until earnings is pretty entertaining.

Investor Letters

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MYR Group q3’26 Earnings Preview

MYR Group’s Q3 2026 preview cites data-center and power transmission demand, with long-term service agreements supporting margin growth and…

MYRG $4.2B
Monte Independent Investment Research 6 clicks

Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

MOS $5.8B
Latticework by MOI Global 34 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $5.8B
Latticework by MOI Global 5 clicks

Why I sold OB pick for 26 SVM

Silvercorp’s falling Ying grades, prolonged GC suspension, El Domo execution risk and Chaarat funding needs weaken its valuation despite…

SVM $1.9B
The Oak Bloke 27 clicks
CLF · long

Cleveland-cliffs INC

Cleveland-Cliffs is pitched as a long on underappreciated earnings power, with more than 90% return potential over six to nine months.

CLF $7.9B
Value Investors Club

Vicor Update, Part Three

Vicor’s $66.6 million in AI power-delivery royalties generated about $50 million of operating profit, eclipsing its module business as…

VICR $8.1B
CV's Substack 28 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $578M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

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