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Friday, October 23, 2026

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Research & Analysis: ERock, Inc. (NYSE: EROC)

ERock’s modular microgrids bridge data-center power gaps years before grid interconnects, with Meta and Anthropic projects filling capacity through early 2028.

EROC $453M
Monte Independent Investment Research 4 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Some notes on this post: 1) Not all of the $99.9M paid down lease debt. $BRUN's finance lease liabilities rose $207.7M on $268.3M of new finance leases, so the payments cut finance lease debt by only $60.6M. Most of the other $39.3M went to advance payments to secure new GPU leases ($37.5M in H1 2026, per the 10-Q's lease note), and the $39.7M of investing outflows paid for equipment and lease prepayments. So more than half of the $139.6M subtracted from operating cash flow was growth investment, while $BRUN added $337.3M of new GPU equipment in H1 2026. 2) The Cohere contract is also set up to be financed against. Cohere "acknowledges that Boost Run finances the equipment, facilities and working capital required to deliver the Services in part against this Agreement." $BRUN can assign its right to receive Cohere's fees to a financing party, and Cohere's obligation to pay undisputed fees is "absolute and unconditional." So $BRUN can borrow against Cohere's payments to pay for the racks, rather than funding them only from its own cash. 3) The material weaknesses behind the controls amendment weren't new. The amended Q1 10-Q says all three were "previously disclosed," including in $BRUN's S-4 (the merger filing). So the amendment corrected the original Q1 10-Q's "effective" conclusion to match weaknesses $BRUN had disclosed before the merger. 4) The CFO award's size dates to the merger, before the controls amendment. CFO Erik Guckel's May 8, 2026 employment agreement, signed when the merger closed, made him eligible for a one-time award covering 2,890,761 shares (time-based RSUs, performance-based RSUs, and options). The compensation committee's September 29, 2026 grant is 2,890,000 time-based RSUs.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Low liquidity is often seen as an absolute disadvantage in investing, like most things it is more nuanced than that. What if it can actually become an independent driver of returns, creating a Lollapalooza affect for the company who's value of float is increasing due to fundamentals: On liquidity and float: The users are buyers and sellers, and a connection is a possible trade between them. As the float's value rises, more people can take part: bigger funds, index trackers and market makers. Each newcomer adds a possible counterparty for everyone already trading. So, the number of possible trades, which is what liquidity really is, grows roughly with the square of the participants, not in a straight line. It also feeds itself, like any network. Liquidity attracts traders, because they can get in and out cheaply. Those traders add more liquidity, which pulls in more traders. Bid-ask spreads narrow, which lowers trading costs and brings in more volume. The majority of this was eloquently articulated by one of the most formidable minds I am aware of @sammutgabi. Our investment strategy leads us into a fair amount of low liquidity names, where the dynamic mentioned above can spark tantalizing returns such as $RYSAS $RYGO $RYSKF $RYSAS.IS
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Here’s what Boost Run $BRUN has already committed to pay, and what it still has to finance in H2 2026. $BRUN’s GPUs need space and power, which it rents in other companies’ data centers (colocation). The four leases signed since April already cover the space and power for the year-end deployments, and CEO Andrew Karos said its partnerships now reach 253 MW of power. $BRUN owes the rent on those sites whether or not the GPUs get financed. In 2027, the commitments $BRUN has already signed call for ~$221M of payments, including $103.5M on its GPU leases, $28.9M of rent on the sites in use as of June 30, ~$69M on the four new leases, and $20M for software. $BRUN’s $191.8M of pro forma cash and $93.6M of contracted prepayments, $285.4M together, cover the ~$221M of 2027 payments before counting any monthly billings from customers. But the same cash also pays $BRUN’s share of the H2 2026 build, so its monthly billings will have to cover part of the 2027 payments. To reach the $1.0-1.2B of GPU spending management expects for 2026, $BRUN has to deploy $663-863M of GPU servers in H2 2026, 2.3-3.0x its cash and contracted prepayments. If lessors fund 79.5% of the H2 2026 build, as they did in H1 2026, $BRUN needs $527-686M of new leases, 2.2-2.9x the $238.1M the company owed on finance leases as of June 30. The other $136-176M would be paid in cash. The $527-686M works out to $264-343M/quarter on average across Q3 and Q4, 1.3-1.6x the $208.2M of leases $BRUN took on in Q2. $BRUN’s lease debt would rise by less than the $527-686M, since the company keeps paying down its leases while adding new ones. During H1 2026, its finance lease debt rose $207.7M on $337.3M of new GPU equipment, or 61.6%, which for H2 2026 would imply ~$410-530M more debt. New leases will likely cost more than ~7% after the rise in rates. For context, at the 9.0% $IREN agreed to pay on its August GPU financing, the extra interest on $527-686M would be ~$6.5-8.5M/year, 1.6-2.1% of the $400M ARR target. And $BRUN isn’t slowing down. By June 30, the company had already placed orders well above the $578M first-year minimum in its April 2026 agreement with Dell $DELL, which also requires at least $215.5M/year of Dell equipment from April 2027 to April 2031 or a payment for the shortfall.

Investor Letters

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GLOO, part two

Gloo faces related-party deals, insider-heavy IPO ownership, acquisition losses and $84.5 million of CEO-backed puts as it burns cash and…

GLOO $291M
Guardian Research 4 clicks

Carecloud News

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CCLD $74M
Calvin Blissett 10 clicks

LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

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Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

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BBW $292M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks

Twenty Years in the Dark

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TPRP $128M
Orphan REITs 5 clicks
FINV · long

Finvolution Group

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FINV $704M
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

NET Power (NPWR):

NET Power’s $1.80 shares are paired with January $2 covered calls for 40 cents as the company pivots from carbon capture to Permian…

NPWR $83M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Zack Buckley on $PRTH's take private

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PRTH $645M
Yet Another Value Podcast 3 clicks

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