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Thursday, October 22, 2026

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@AsifSuria 1 click

Asif Suria on X

Mary Barra continues to show that she is the GOAT of the automotive industry. Despite the big pullback in $GM stock today, over the last year: Ford is essentially flat Rivian $RIVN is down 5% Tesla $TSLA is down 16% Stellantis is down a whopping 60% GM is up more than 30% Pulling back the curtain 10 years, Ford generated no returns (not taking dividends into account) and Stellantis lost a third of its value. GM is up 139% over the last 10 years. Barra took on the role of CEO in January 2014 after being with the company since 1980. Obviously the ten year return pales in comparison to the returns of Tesla or the NASDAQ over that time but she has continued to do a great job in a challenging industry that has undergone tremendous change since Tesla transformed the landscape.
@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

Four Tree Island Advisory is once again pushing against DoubleU Games’ $11.25 per ADS bid for DoubleDown Interactive $DDI, calling it far too low given DDI’s recent performance. DDI has since delivered two strong quarters, with cash per ADS rising to over $11.18. Using Playtika’s ~4.3x EBITDA multiple (despite Playtika’s weaker balance sheet, higher leverage, and declining EBITDA), this would imply roughly $26.40 per ADS (more than double today’s price), which Four Tree Island still frames as a conservative floor.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

If scale-up uses VCSEL arrays, we think Lumentum ($LITE) would compete with several vendors, eroding its valuation's scarcity premium. Many smart investors are bullish and credit Lumentum with an exclusive ability to make ultra-high-power CW (continuous-beam) lasers for scale-up links between AI chips. If those links go wide and slow (many small VCSEL or microLED emitters, each at modest speed), that case could break down. Lumentum's own Open Compute Project demo used VCSEL arrays from its smartphone 3D-sensing manufacturing platform. The demo is an in-rack proof of concept, not a replacement for every higher-power laser. Credo ($CRDO) opened a workstream with a hyperscaler and ams OSRAM to standardise wide, parallel links, citing supply-chain resiliency, targeting 2027 approval. VCSEL arrays are tested on the wafer, so they are cheap in volume. The standard would let operators buy from Coherent ($COHR), ams OSRAM and others. In that case, we think Lumentum competes on scale and cost, not scarcity: customers can switch, pricing power and margins come under pressure and share must be won. Near-term earnings can still benefit from the laser shortage, with Lumentum sold out through early 2029.
@StableBread 5 clicks

Fajasy on X

I went through every Boost Run $BRUN contract with disclosed terms to see how much of its $2.6B+ of total contract value (TCV) they cover. Cohere, the Canadian developer of AI models for businesses and governments, agreed on September 30, 2026, to pay $BRUN $525.6M over the agreement’s term for $NVDA’s GB300 NVL72 racks, each with 72 Blackwell Ultra GPUs. Part of the $525.6M is a prepayment $BRUN hasn’t disclosed. But if we follow the 22% average $BRUN says its prepayments run, the prepayment would be ~$116M. Each rack’s term runs 60 months, and the first racks should start in Q2 2027. Cohere can terminate and get back everything it prepaid if it hasn’t accepted a minimum number of racks by July 15, 2027. $BRUN has disclosed terms for seven contracts, and the two largest are with Cohere and Thinking Machines Lab, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati: → Fluidstack (November 6, 2025): $63.6M over 24 months, or $31.8M/year. → 1,280 B300s, Charlotte (March 15, 2026): $116.1M over 36 months, or $38.7M/year. → 256 H200s, Raleigh (March 16, 2026): $3.7M over 12 months, or $3.7M/year. → Thinking Machines Lab (May 21, 2026): $471.7M over 36 months, or $157.2M/year. → June order, 240 GPU servers (June 8, 2026): $207.6M over 36 months, or $69.2M/year. → July order, 1,536 B300s (July 9, 2026): $222.5M over 48 months, or $55.6M/year. → Cohere (September 30, 2026): $525.6M over 60 months, or $105.1M/year. --- → Total: $1.61B, or $461.3M/year. Unnamed customers are labeled by what they rent, including $NVDA’s current B300 (Blackwell Ultra) and older H200 GPUs. $BRUN’s TCV is over $2.6B, so the other $989M+ is in deals without disclosed terms. The October 6 release calls the $2.6B “total revenue customers have committed to pay,” but the August 14 Q2 deck also counted renewal options and LOIs in TCV, and $BRUN hasn’t said whether the definition changed. So the conservative read counts only the seven contracts with disclosed terms, worth $1.61B, not the $2.6B headline.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Specifically on $DOCU which is approaching levels not witnessed since 2021. Not only is there the rates sensitivity (usually software long duration, higher rates should hurt (been opposite this rate move for now) and the exposure to AI threats (how hard is it to rewire an esignature) even if you want to put those two aside, the business has a significant exposure to the real estate (mortgage, refi, etc) industry and that by all accounts is not performing well (see starts data today, number of existing closings, etc)... seems like this lack of pricing fundamental developments of the business is the tell tale that the move is not based in anything more than a squeeze it would seem. Would love to know from any buyers, why buy here, and what causes you to sell (purely momentum?) It would seem a deep rerating (the opposite from last earnings set up) might be coming for the software trade (especially if AI trade comes back to close out the year). Upsetting they are so inversely correlated, because AI rate of change spending levels does not matter, current AI is enough to present problems for these software providers, at some point that linked should break as AI spend less still won't save software names from their problems

Investor Letters

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MYR Group q3’26 Earnings Preview

MYR Group’s Q3 2026 preview cites data-center and power transmission demand, with long-term service agreements supporting margin growth and…

MYRG $4B
Monte Independent Investment Research 5 clicks

Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 16 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 4 clicks

Unicycive (UNCY):

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical…

UNCY $110M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks
UNCY · long

Unicycive Therapeutics INC

Unicycive Therapeutics fell nearly 50% after a second FDA Complete Response Letter tied to a third-party manufacturer for its primary…

UNCY $110M
Value Investors Club

Moon River Moly: Research Note

Moon River Moly’s updated Davidson PEA lifts after-tax NPV to $1.24 billion as flotation raises tungsten output 350% and cuts molybdenum…

MRIVF $16M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

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