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Thursday, October 22, 2026

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@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

$ABVX We've been here before, about three months ago. Price is controlling the narrative again. In June people extrapolated a handful of malignancy cases into a broken thesis, the stock fell 43%, and then erased a month of losses in a single day when the next data landed. Nothing about the asset changed in either direction. I think the same thing is happening now. The price is lower, so people have decided shareholders are doomed and nobody is ever going to buy the business. The fair argument against me is that the probability of a takeout has fallen, because it hasn't happened yet. List your house, get no bids in 60 days, and that tells you something about your asking price. Silence is information. But big pharma M&A is a market with half a dozen real buyers, competing priorities, and internal politics. Deals come together in weeks or in years. The signal from "no deal yet" is extremely noisy, and people are treating it as a clean efficient market. I think the bigger problem is what shareholders were assuming in the first place. If you expected a $180-200 takeout within three months, at today's price that is a 78% return in a quarter. Call it 50/50 to be "conservative" and you are still assuming roughly 39% a quarter or 270% annualized. (Change the numbers to levels a month ago and you still get the same directional craziness) So the problem was never the price target. Targets have a defensible basis. The problem is the clock. My view: $150-200 over the next 18 months, either from a buyout or from a credible launch trajectory. From here that is 25-50% annualized, which is a number a portfolio can be built on. Roughly the same price everyone else is talking about. I just don't have the same timeline expectation. If a buyout comes sooner, that is the better outcome, not just the faster one. The asset is worth more inside a company that already has a GI salesforce than it is standalone. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds hold a long position in ABVX. Views expressed are current opinions for informational and educational purposes only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results. See the disclosures link in bio for more important information.
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Voss Capital has been increasing its position in Euronet Worldwide $EEFT and sending angry letters, pushing the company to review strategic alternatives. Despite almost all fundamentals moving in the right direction, Euronet's share price had a horrible 2025, mostly on (fears of) increasing competition from digital-first rivals such as Wise and Remitly. Voss argues that parts like payment processing and money transfer could be valued more highly on their own. A full sale could deliver even more (100%+ potential), as it will also monetize Euronet's global licenses and cash generation. Also, it is worth noting that Euronet has been (and continues to be) a true share cannibal.
@OddDiligence

Odd Diligence on X

$HQ so as many know, QTUM ETF owns 6,565,887 HQ shares (by far the majority of float). The QTUM ETF reviews weightings semi-annually per ETF documentation. This would mean next weighting change is not until December Surprisingly, they published a file Friday night that included changed ETF weightings, against the ETF's rules. This would mean ~3M HQ shares would have needed to be sold by Friday. As a result, index arbs on Monday knocked the stock down 32% on 3X average volume. Selling was massive from open to close Through a few conversations, the index provider corrected the error. Announcement just came out from index provider - Weightings will NOT be changed, other than extremely minor (pro rata) to allow QNT to enter the index ~3M HQ shares will not be sold now by the index. All the index arbs who sold the stock off 32% yesterday will need to decide on what to do Or they can pay 101% overnight rate

Investor Letters

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