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Thursday, October 22, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Curtiss-Wright $CW is BWX Technologies’ $BWXT closest comp, and $BWXT trades below it on every measure but FCF yield. Since naval propulsion is close to half of $BWXT’s revenue, its closest comps are other Navy suppliers. Small-reactor developers like Oklo $OKLO and NuScale $SMR wouldn’t work anyway, as they lost $73.2M and $64.0M from operations in Q2 2026, leaving no EBITDA multiple to compare against. So I decided to compare $BWXT with four listed companies building or equipping the same Navy submarines and carriers: → Curtiss-Wright $CW: Pumps, valves, and turbines for the same submarines and carriers, plus reactor coolant pumps for Westinghouse’s AP1000. → Leonardo DRS $DRS: Naval power and propulsion systems, including electric drive equipment for the Columbia-class. → General Dynamics $GD: Builds the submarines through its Electric Boat unit. → Huntington Ingalls $HII: Builds the carriers and submarines at its Newport News shipyard. Here’s how they compare on 2026 estimates (P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/sales, FCF yield): → $BWXT: 30.7x, 22.5x, 3.95x, 2.64% → $CW: 36.3x, 24.8x, 5.54x, 2.90% → $DRS: 26.9x, 18.4x, 2.48x, 2.78% → $GD: 19.7x, 13.9x, 1.68x, 5.34% → $HII: n/a, 12.3x, 0.98x, 5.28% Note: CW’s, GD’s, and HII’s EBITDA is operating income plus D&A from company guidance, since they don’t guide EBITDA. $BWXT trades above the two shipbuilders, which earn thinner margins. HII guides shipbuilding operating margins of 6.0-6.5% and GD 10.5% overall, vs. $BWXT’s 12.6% GAAP operating margin in 2025. A reasonable EV/EBITDA range for $BWXT is 16-24x, between its own end-2023 multiple and Curtiss-Wright’s today.
@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

$PNG.V: Kraken is the subsystem prime for AUVs, batteries, sonar and navigation (via Covelya/Sonardyne) so it captures $3–5m of content per hull as Anduril and the navies scale up uncrewed fleets $THEON: Theon is NATO’s night-vision franchise, just got into counter drones. Cheap, and growing +20% $MOD — After the October 1 spin, Modine is a pure-play data center cooling company the market still prices like an auto-parts supplier, at roughly 10x FY28E EBITDA versus Vertiv near 40x, while large chillers and air handlers for Google and Amazon grow 60%+ $TOI.V — Topicus is Constellation’s European vertical-software arm, with 6% recurring organic growth. I think it re-rates once the new CEO puts its €180m+ half-yearly free cash flow back to work on acquisitions.
@StableBread 2 clicks

Fajasy on X

Only part of the $1.0-1.2B Boost Run $BRUN expects to spend on GPUs in 2026 is paid in cash up front. $BRUN plans to pay for the GPUs with (1) customer prepayments and operating revenue and (2) equipment leases that spread the cost over the lease term and generally end with an option to buy the GPUs outright. During H1 2026, lessors (the companies that buy the GPUs and lease them to $BRUN) funded $268.3M of new GPU equipment through finance leases. $BRUN made $39.4M of advance payments to secure those leases and paid $29.6M in cash for equipment it bought outright, so lessors funded 79.5% of its $337.3M of new GPU equipment. The $268.3M came from 34 separate GPU leases with 30- to 36-month terms, and the June 30 lease schedule implies an interest rate of ~7%. Its finance leases as of June 30 call for $103.5M of payments in 2027 and $99.8M in 2028, then just $12.1M in 2029, about when its three-year contracts end. So the lease debt runs off with contracted revenue, not with renewals $BRUN still has to win. Customer deposits, the payments customers make up front on their contracts, were $128.4M as of June 30. New deposits made up $112.9M of H1 2026’s $114.2M of operating cash flow, while $BRUN paid $99.9M on its finance leases over the same six months. Effectively, customers’ prepayments are already paying for the GPUs they rent. Founder and CEO Andrew Karos said on the Q2 call that every deal $BRUN closes comes with a prepayment, averaging 22% of total contract value (TCV). The June and July orders alone carry $93.6M due by their start dates ($37.9M on November 30 and $55.6M in installments through March 2027). Karos also said $BRUN’s TCV-to-capex ratio, its contract value divided by what the GPUs cost, keeps rising to 1.4 and above as contracts get longer. So a three-year contract brings in ~$1.40 for every $1.00 of GPUs, which also has to cover the lease interest, the rent, and the staff. In other words, a three-year contract mostly covers the GPUs and the cost of running them, so how much $BRUN makes on those GPUs depends on renting them out again after the leases end in 2029, without lease payments, at whatever older B300s fetch by then.

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