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Thursday, October 22, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

The $3T “hidden AI debt” number is not the story WSJ just put a headline on the shadow capex we’ve been tracking for a while. Purchase commitments + leases that have not started. Most of it never hits the balance sheet. The $3T is real. The interpretation is not. Add the explicit debt-like items on the books of $GOOGL $MSFT $META $AMZN and you get ~1.69x. Widen the definition to implicit / off-book instruments and it can balloon to 8.36x — approaching that $3T figure. That is the chart. It is not the economics. 1. Most of this is contract value, not a hard legal obligation to pay. A lot of it is pay-as-you-go. The commitments they actually have to fund already sit on the balance sheet. 2. The implicit load is shared. It is spread across financial players — private credit and equity — who are underwriting the build. Their IRRs are not insane. Current ROIC on this spend is still high. This is not a bubble from here. 3. AI ROIC can compress later. I would not be surprised. Near-term it is more likely to stay elevated or even rise. Compute is still short. Efficiency gains are raising, not lowering, the value of each incremental GPU-hour. 4. What the hyperscalers are actually doing: paying a bit more, accepting a slightly lower margin, and sharing a slice of the economics with investors who want the risk. That is risk offload, not hidden leverage. The cleaner setup is still the player that can keep building more capacity internally without leaning as hard on this structure. SpaceX is the extreme version of that. It also means more profit pass-through to the specialized GPU clouds sitting in the middle of this: $IREN $NBIS $CRWV and others. The $3T is a real number. Treating it as imminent balance-sheet stress is the wrong read. Pictures below are snapshots from our AI Bubble Barometer.
@OddDiligence

Odd Diligence on X

$NTWO new DA with FORT Robotics, $500M EV, current price $11.17 ($10.78 NAV value for the SPAC) They build hardware and software for robotics to make them safe to operate - whereas CCXI (Agility Robotics) directly builds humanoids FORT Robotics partners with NVIDIA and Google. PIPE with Tiger Global, Prologis Ventures, Mark Cuban SPAC has 17.25M float. 6M shares traded so far- good start towards churning the arbs https://t.co/nHFAVGwnlQ (im heavy long both ccxi + ntwo)

Investor Letters

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Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 34 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 5 clicks

Unicycive (UNCY):

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical…

UNCY $98M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks
UNCY · long

Unicycive Therapeutics INC

Unicycive Therapeutics fell nearly 50% after a second FDA Complete Response Letter tied to a third-party manufacturer for its primary…

UNCY $98M
Value Investors Club

GLOO, part two

Gloo faces related-party deals, insider-heavy IPO ownership, acquisition losses and $84.5 million of CEO-backed puts as it burns cash and…

GLOO $269M
Guardian Research 4 clicks

Why I sold OB pick for 26 SVM

Silvercorp’s falling Ying grades, prolonged GC suspension, El Domo execution risk and Chaarat funding needs weaken its valuation despite…

SVM $2B
The Oak Bloke 27 clicks

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