Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Back to today

From X

@StableBread 4 clicks

Fajasy on X

“We are in active discussions with some of the largest GPU consumers in the world, with requirements ranging from 10,000-50,000 GPUs. Those discussions are not yet contracts, and we will announce them only when they are.” That’s what Boost Run $BRUN CEO Andrew Karos said on the Q2 call. None of my bear, base, or bull cases considers a contract with one of those buyers. At Thinking Machines’ $3.59/GPU-hour, a single 10,000-GPU contract would bring in $314.5M/year, 78.6% of the $400M 2026 target. Karos also said $BRUN is procuring another $4-5B of computing hardware from multiple manufacturers. If all of it were rented out on three-year contracts at 1.4x TCV-to-capex (contract value divided by what the GPUs cost), the hardware would bring in $1.9-2.3B/year, 4.7-5.8x the 2026 target. But if lessors fund 79.5% of the purchases, as they did in H1 2026, $BRUN would also take on $3.2-4.0B of new lease debt. So how $BRUN finances the procurement decides how much of the $1.9-2.3B reaches shareholders.
@BlueDuckCap 1 click

BDC on X

This is a big deal. Strategic acquisition and verticalization of value based oncology care continues leaving $STLN as uniquely scare and thus strategic from here. AONC has no speciality pharma piece and yet is getting bought for 17x gross profit. $STLN is the last multi state actually-acquirable platform. What's left outside STLN is subscale: Utah Cancer Specialists (~40), Cancer Care Northwest (~30), Western Michigan (~30), plus Levitate Ridge's early West Coast platform. There are 2,000+ oncology groups in the US, but almost none with multi-state density. Cardinal has the smallest footprint and no VBC capability, which makes it the most plausible remaining strategic — followed by a payer (Carelon, Optum) or PE. Key point is that we believe $STLN is the much better asset and putting the 17x gross profit acquisition multiple on runrate 2027 estimates gets us ~$25 stock. Not advice.
@StableBread 3 clicks

Fajasy on X

How much of the $400M of ARR that Boost Run $BRUN is targeting by December 31 is already signed? Five of its seven contracts with disclosed terms can count toward the $400M target, since the July order and Cohere, $160.7M/year combined, don’t start until 2027. If Thinking Machines Lab’s GPUs are fully running by December 31 and the June order starts on November 30, the five cover $300.6M (75.1%) of the target, leaving $99.4M for contracts without disclosed terms. For comparison, the Q2 deck’s deployment schedule had $0.4B of the then-$1.9B of TCV in production by the end of Q2, with all of it live by Q1 2027. From there, the deck shows another $0.4B of TCV going into production in Q3 and another $0.4B in Q4, a straight line to $1.2B by year-end that management calls consistent with the $400M+ ARR target. The deck’s footnote says the Q3 figure is a management estimate “interpolated from disclosed metrics,” so the actual climb will likely be lumpier, with the June order alone starting November 30. Cohere’s racks start in Q2 2027, right after the deck’s schedule ends, so even without a new contract, $BRUN has signed deployments lined up through mid-2027. $BRUN’s last ARR figure was $145M as of June 30, from the Q2 call, so the Q3 report (expected in mid-November) will be the first check on H2 2026. A straight-line climb from $145M (as of June 30) to $400M by December 31 would mean $136.3M of H2 2026 revenue, in line with the $127.9-137.9M needed to hit the $170-180M of 2026 revenue its October 8 prospectus amendment still estimates. By quarter, that climb works out to $52.2M of revenue in Q3 and $84.1M in Q4, up from $31.1M in Q2. In other words, the year-end target is mostly contracted, and the risk is getting the GPUs bought, financed, and running by December 31.

Investor Letters

All letters

Carecloud News

CareCloud may attract a private-equity buyer after its Q3 call, with acquiring enough shares the main obstacle to a take-private deal.

CCLD $79M
Calvin Blissett 10 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $303M
TSOH Investment Research 18 clicks

Twenty Years in the Dark

Tower Properties, $TPRP, went dark after a 2006 squeeze-out cut holders below 300, leaving a Kemper-controlled apartment and office…

TPRP $128M
Orphan REITs 5 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $783M
TSOH Investment Research 12 clicks
CHGG · long

Chegg Inc

Chegg is framed as a binary long with 500% upside against 20% downside.

CHGG $78M
Value Investors Club 15 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 54 of 245

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

90 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

190 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.