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Tuesday, October 20, 2026

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LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $525M
Trade Ideas Flow 20 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT won a ~$36M U.S. defense stockpile contract for metal its plants already make, while deliveries under its $2B stockpile contract wait on new supply. On September 30, Elmet announced the award from the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), which manages the U.S. National Defense Stockpile. It covers TZM (titanium-zirconium-molybdenum alloy) billets, bar stock, and ingots, plus molybdenum and tungsten wire, materials used to make jet engine components. Elmet's $2B stockpile contract, announced September 14, is separate and covers tungsten concentrate, the upgraded ore a mine ships. The $36M is 27.4% of Elmet's $131.5M total backlog at July 3 ($36M / $131.5M), and the release doesn't say when deliveries start or how long the contract runs. On the slide for the $2B contract, Elmet's October 1 deck says Elmet "does not intend to begin delivering material into the National Defense Stockpile until sufficient incremental new supply is available." Elmet's supply agreement with Tungsten West (AIM: TUN) puts concentrate from Hemerdon, its tungsten mine in Devon, England, first in line for Elmet's DLA deliveries until Elmet's Nevada refinery is commissioned (targeted for 1H 2029). Elmet expects >1,000 tonnes a year of Hemerdon concentrate, and the mine targets full production by the end of Q1 2027. In September I treated $1.85B of the $2B ceiling as an upper bound, not orders Elmet has in hand, and the $36M sits outside the $2B entirely. So the stockpile's newest award goes to metal from Elmet's existing U.S. plants, while the $2B contract still waits on a mine in England that isn't at full production yet.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

If ur reading a write-up and they don't include a valuation range, more often than not: 1) They're lying to themselves. E.g. only pitching bull case. "The next 10x." $GRAB a couple years ago. 2) They're lying to you, the reader. E.g. not focusing on bear case enough. "It's asymmetric"... but actual downside if couple thing flops is 60%+. $FLNC just 2-3 months ago. 3) They have no clue and prob conclude by saying "position as small speculative bet" to be in a win-win scenario to gain subs. $CCXI today... Multiple based valuation is the simple/lazy route and easier to defend, yet less practical. Absolute valuations like DCF or Penman REV forces you to think more through scenarios and the business itself, which is what's actually useful because it's more subjective.

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $783M
TSOH Investment Research 12 clicks
FINV · long

Finvolution Group

FinVolution, a China and ASEAN unsecured consumer lender, trades at 4x earnings and 0.5x book value.

FINV $698M
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

What I’ve Been Up To

Cogent Communications and AI data-center bottlenecks feature in a newsletter update on recruiting, financial media and conference takeaways.

CCOI $428M
Stock Thoughts 5 clicks

Solid Power Still Has Promise

Solid Power reported a $0.11 Q2 loss and $419.3 million of cash, with its electrolyte pilot line and BMW and SK On validation central to…

SLDP $461M
Quad 7 Capital 2 clicks

Not So Fast

Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.

EVC $584M
The Mikro Kap 6 clicks

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