Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Saturday, October 17, 2026

Back to today

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 14 clicks

From X

@HaydenCapital

Fred Liu on X

I doubt being an "Irish" company makes a difference. But it's actually not that difficult to list in HK, esp since most of the prep work is done. Don't know if people still remember the 2022 PBAOC de-listing events. But $PDD and others had already filed paperwork to list in HK, and pulled it when audits were approved. https://t.co/ukMsOByVgh I believe they have paperwork ready to go, and the process takes 3-6 weeks. Fully expect them to list in HK, if / when its officially confirmed. ** Worst case is they trade OTC. Volumes get hit, and would be some short-term pain from forced-sellers. But Luckin ($8BN) mkt cap) is trading near all-time highs + trades $80M / day on the pink sheets, and Didi ($17BN mkt cap) still trades $40M / day. Not bad... What matters in the end is just business execution, and higher earnings.
@HaydenCapital

Fred Liu on X

Li Auto is launching in the Philippines (and likely rest of SE Asia). Pictures from yesterday, at Manila's SM Mall of Asia. $LI. Management has talked publicly about Middle East and Central Asia as initial markets, but don't think they've mentioned SE Asia before... According to the sales associate, their first store in BGC is opening end of April, with 3 more locations in following months. Seems the $LI overseas expansion is happening much faster than investors anticipate... L7 priced at 4-4.5M PHP, and L9 at 5-5.5M PHP (+50% more expensive than in China).
@HaydenCapital

Fred Liu on X

Going thru Circle's $CRCL S-1. First pass, it seems Coinbase $COIN is best levered to Circle's $CRCL growth. USDC avg circulation grew +9% y/y in 2024, revenues grew +16%, but profits went down -42%. Mainly because payments to $COIN grew +31%. More and more USDC is held on Coinbase's platform, on which they get a "distribution fee" (18% of total supply vs. 8% in 2023, and vs. Circle's 2%). (The Aug 2023 contract renegotiation helped too. Also assumes continued preference holding USDC on Coinbase's platform). https://t.co/yoWLFOJg3X

Investor Letters

All letters

2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $786M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $7.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 55 of 247

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

90 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

190 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.