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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $783M
TSOH Investment Research 11 clicks

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@calvinblissett 3 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

LendingTree ($TREE) Upside: ~120% to ~$54. Assumes 7x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance ($148.5 million), less ~$280 million of net debt, across 14.0 million shares. The stock currently trades at about 4x. LendingTree is the largest U.S. online marketplace connecting consumers with lenders and insurers. The stock has fallen 65% from its high, first on a Q2 earnings miss and lowered guidance, then in September on a Wall Street Journal report about Meta’s “Muse” AI agent, which investors fear could let consumers shop for loans and insurance without visiting a marketplace. At $24.43, TREE trades at roughly 4x enterprise value to 2026 EBITDA guidance of $145–152 million. The AI fear overlooks two things. First, insurance is now about two-thirds of revenue ($209 million in Q2, up 42%), paid by carriers buying leads regardless of where the search starts. Second, loan brokering requires state licensing and fraud controls; management notes that ChatGPT and Gemini declined to process loan applications and referred users to marketplaces including LendingTree. Net leverage has fallen from 5.3x in 2023 to 1.9x, removing the balance-sheet risk that once hung over the stock. The disintermediation risk is real, but a 4x multiple prices in a lot of it.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

GAMCO Investors ($GAMI) is the value-investing asset manager founded by Mario Gabelli, with $36.6 billion of AUM. The shares trade at a steep discount largely because of structure, not operations: GAMCO voluntarily left the NYSE for the OTCQX market, which puts it outside most indexes and institutional mandates. Its public float is small, and voting control sits with non-traded Class B shares held by Gabelli’s family entity. At $25.32, GAMCO holds $231 million of cash and investments with no debt, about $11 per share, or more than 40% of the market cap. With Q2 EPS of $1.07 (up from $0.93 on 13% revenue growth), the stock trades at about 6x annualized earnings, and the operating business excluding cash at roughly 3–4x. Part of its AUM sits in closed-end funds, permanent capital that cannot be redeemed, which makes the fee stream stickier than a typical active manager’s. Key-person risk around Mr. Gabelli is real, and the recent addition of Christopher Marangi to the board supports succession.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Virtus Investment Partners ($VRTS) is a multi-boutique asset manager with $152 billion of AUM. The stock has fallen about 20% since August as quality-style equity strategies suffered $14.1 billion of year-to-date outflows. At $132.29, VRTS trades at about 6x annualized adjusted EPS of $5.54 with a ~7% dividend yield, and net debt is just 0.9x EBITDA. The less obvious fact: Virtus’s average fee rate rose to 43.1bps from 41.3bps a year ago despite outflows. Lower-fee equity assets are leaving, while higher-fee alternatives ($19.7 billion of AUM) and ETFs are growing, including the 56% stake in private-credit manager Keystone, acquired in March. One caveat from the footnotes: the noncontrolling interest liability jumped to $152.5 million, largely Keystone, which signals a future obligation to buy the remaining equity. Buybacks have shrunk the share count to 6.6 million.
@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

"I don't know of any other system that's as good… The snapshot it presents is an enormously efficient way for us to garner information about various businesses… I have yet to see a better way, including fooling around on the internet, that gives me the information as quickly." -Warren E Buffett on Value Line. I will do deep dives on the 2 opportunities you guys are most interested in. I think $GAMI, $ALX and $TREE (due to the narrative) are the most itneresting.

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What I’ve Been Up To

Cogent Communications and AI data-center bottlenecks feature in a newsletter update on recruiting, financial media and conference takeaways.

CCOI $428M
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks
LWAY · long

Lifeway Foods INC

Lifeway Foods holds 95% market share in kefir, is growing 20% to 35%, and trades at 12 times projected 2027 earnings as its capex cycle…

LWAY $336M
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