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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 14 clicks

From X

@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Strategy ($MSTR) has $15bn of preferreds, all yielding 10%+ Here's a quick summary of the situation > ~$22bn of debt + preferred vs. ~$54bn of BTC > Current interest/dividend obligation is now $1.75bn+ per year > $6bn+ of converts (1st tranche putable beginning in '27); all busted > Saylor beginning to sell $BTC and has a $4bn USD reserve which funds 2+ years of fixed obligations > Most junior preferred, $STRD, trading at 64 cents / 15.8% > Most senior preferred, $STRF, trading at 96 cents / 10.6% Is there a relative value trade here? My thoughts below
@BlueDuckCap 1 click

BDC on X

Had to re-listen to $STLN (frmr $TOI) call this am. Outstanding results, execution, and overall outlook. Numbers going way higher. The multiple should too. Dan and Rob turned this from a distressed equity to a best in class growth story with ripping revenues, positive FCF and ebitda, a debt refi, rebrand, and multiple market launches on the come. Just incredible execution. Well done! FWIW - and this is not advice, but we think $STLN headed to mid teens in the next 6-12 months....150-250% upside based on our math, which is just an opinion.

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $783M
TSOH Investment Research 12 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $7.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $748M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 28 clicks

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