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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 14 clicks

From X

@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

I'm short a little $CRWV. Obviously I'm not happy with the move today, but I listened to the @cnbc interview with the CEO and two things really made me feel better: 1) @jimcramer called it an "inflection point" and a day that will go down in history (thank you for your tireless service Jim) 2) The $CRWV CEO's stuttering and non-stuttering sequences really were quite revealing. I'm not trying to belittle someone's speech challenges. Public speaking is hard, but someone with some basic CIA interview skills training would have a field day with his 5-10 minute segment on CNBC, particularly when asked about margins, insider selling, and project delays. He struggled mightily there to get the words out, which is telling. Of course @CNBC clipped out most of those parts of the interview, but you can watch the rest here. https://t.co/ldWzhWZXlO
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

The management team at $NCMI are idiots. Pausing the dividend and buyback to buy an operate of digital video elevator and lobby advertising in office buildings. For $275 million. They pulled guidance too and net leverage is 3.9x. They are buying this garbage at 14.5x 2025 EBITDA. The $3.5 million of annualized syngeries only gets you to 12.2x EBITDA. And they are headlining a 10x acquisition multiple. Any management team that spends shareholder capital buying overvalued assets needs to be fired.
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Stride’s $LRN CEO James Rhyu seems to be getting canned and will be replaced by old-timer Robert Knowling. Is the 71-year-old CEO the right person to run a company that’s struggling with tech implementations, or is he better suited to manage relations with school boards? To calm the markets, LRN pre-released earnings in line with expectations, but they failed to comment on enrollment figures, which spooked markets. This has been a volatile name. If they guide to a return to growth in Q1, this should re-rate from the 9x FCF it currently trades at. If for some reason enrollments decline because parents are holding a grudge after a year of tech issues, watch out below. Operating leverage is very strong here. Mr. Knowling’s contract includes a change-of-control provision.

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $783M
TSOH Investment Research 12 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $7.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B
CV's Substack 20 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $748M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 28 clicks

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