Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $109B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 87 clicks

Oct 14 NVDA $5.2T

An Interview with Nvidia’s Ian Buck on Why GPUs Keep Winning

Key Context by Tae Kim 5 clicks

Oct 14 SHEN $556M

Private Equity Prints Multibaggers With This Pattern. No One is Talking About It.

Phynvesting 20 clicks

From X

@RagingVentures Oct 14 2 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

@orrdavid @merrillmatter To be fair, I asked you *a lot* of questions - $SPCX was far from the hardest! In response, you were fully transparent and didn’t dodge any of my questions. You were great. I can’t wait to share the full cleaned up transcript of our discussion, likely in early November.

@LaughingH20Cap Oct 14 5 clicks

Laughing Water Capital on X

@bufetmastermind @secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty maybe i don't. I'd appreciate if you could explain. they had said 50% FCF margin on $1B in sales. $LQDA is still going to get to $1B in sales. Its just going to take longer. Tell me why 50% FCF margins are not in play. Bonus points if you can tell why they won't reduce costs

@HaydenCapital Oct 14 1 click

Fred Liu on X

Is Tiktok Shop slowing? J&T Express just reported SE Asia parcel volumes, and are flat for the year at ~31M per day for the last few qtrs. They're guiding to 50-55% full year growth, implying Q4 holiday season only ramps to 33-37M parcels. Evidence Shopee's VIP & logistics investments are working? $SE $1519.HK

@hkuppy Oct 14 1 click

Kuppy on X

I’m sure that $CRWV is money good on funding its gazillions of chip purchase orders, as long as someone funds $CRWV…🤭🤭 https://t.co/TOnS6iGurC

@StableBread Oct 14

Fajasy on X

Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners II $ATII, the SPAC taking atomic-scale coatings maker Forge Nano public, amended the $100M lead commitment in its PIPE on October 13, three days before the October 16 merger vote. Alyeska, the Chicago hedge fund behind that $100M, will now take 7,031,175 of its 10M shares as pre-funded warrants, up from the 3M planned as of September 24. Those warrants cost $0.0001/share to exercise and never expire, but they don't vote until exercised, and Alyeska can cap its ownership at 4.9%, 9.9%, or 19.9% of the shares. ATII and its sponsor, with the consent of BTIG (the bank that ran ATII's IPO), also waived the transfer restrictions on the 3M founder shares the sponsor hands Alyeska for free at close. Counting the founder share transfer, Alyeska's effective cost is $7.69/share, and the S-4 (the merger filing) says so directly. So the $100M still lands at close, but the fund providing it got more flexible terms the day before ATII holders had to decide whether to redeem.

@gnoble79 Oct 14 8 clicks

George Noble on X

Keith, you are a total POS. You belong in jail for securities fraud. I own you. You laughed at me first shorting $OOEN at 8. You are such a pathetic, odious pile of garbage. So pathetic. The entire world is laughing at you. Thanks for playing. $OPEN @rabois @ericjackson @APompliano @

@BrokenMoats Oct 14 6 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP

@calvinblissett Oct 14 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

@valuedontlie Forgive me I haven’t done the work I may soon, isn’t the whole point of $VITL is having a brand and being specialized to insulate it from cyclicality to see degree? I’m one of those people who pay up for pasture raised no matter what

RTX Q3 Preview: Two Growth Engines Make This Aerospace And Defense Leader A 'Buy'

RTX’s $289 billion backlog, including $119 billion in defense, supports growth from defense contracts and commercial aerospace aftermarket…

RTX $247B

Blake Winiecki Oct 14 5 clicks

Coherent | Management Call

COHR $52B

P Equity Research Oct 14 19 clicks

My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $631B

Best Anchor Stocks Oct 14 26 clicks

Visa: Unpacking The 7 Powers And Forward Valuation Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

Visa’s network economics support long-term compounding, but a 1.7–1.8 forward PEG and risks to high-margin payment revenues limit near-term…

V $750B

C Jessen Oct 14 36 clicks

Deep Dive: Applied Materials ($AMAT)

Applied Materials leads wafer-fab deposition and ranks third in etch, positioning it for tougher 3D chip manufacturing as investors weigh a…

AMAT $329B

Rebound Capital Oct 14 30 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LVI

Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.

HWM $88BJBHT $22B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 14 15 clicks

Palantir Is Not C3.Ai, But C3.Ai Wrote Its Watch List - Downgrade Palantir To Hold, Sell C3.Ai

Palantir is cut to Hold after a 35% multiple-driven rally, while C3.ai is rated Sell on stalled revenue, expensive valuation and weak…

PLTR $482B

The Alpha Analyst Oct 14 11 clicks

Lennar: The Misstep Is Temporary, the Operating Machine Is Not

Lennar cut build times to 116 days and adopted an asset-light land model, while gross margin fell to 15.8% from 27.5% as land costs rose.

LEN $18B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 16 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $18B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $18B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 13 clicks

SLGN · long

Silgan

Silgan’s long thesis rests on roughly 10% historical EPS growth and a potential rerating as its end-market exposure evolves.

SLGN $3.8B

Value Investors Club May 3 1 click

The Wendy’s Company (Symbol: WEN) One-Hour Analysis: How Sustainable is the $1.00 Dividend?

Wendy’s $1 annual dividend yields 6.8%, supported by positive same-store sales and unit growth but constrained by $2.75 billion of debt and…

WEN $1.3B

Investing 501 Jan 30

[PQ] PLTK: Playing Bad (Governance) Odds

Playtika's governance is so poor it may create a contrarian opportunity.

PLTK $835M

Nongaap Investing Jan 21

UGI Corporation (Symbol: UGI). One Hour Analysis: Weak Performance at AmeriGas Division Obscures Strong Performance of Natural Gas Utility and Midstream Assets.

UGI's AmeriGas EBITDA fell from $584 million in 2019 to $320 million in 2024, masking growth at its gas utility and midstream divisions.

UGI $8.1B

Investing 501 Jan 17

20 OTC Markets Oddities

OTC Markets has lost many profitable small companies to buyouts, privatizations and SEC Rule 15c2-11.

MUEL $386MABLT $0M

Exploring with Alluvial Capital Jan 17

A 4x in 4 Years Surfing the Data Center Tsunami? ($TGEN)

Tecogen ($TGEN) sells gas-or-electric chillers that management says cut data-center cooling costs 30–40%, with factory utilization offering…

TGEN $69M

Multibagger Monitor Jan 8 3 clicks

A Quarter Century of Investing

A value-oriented investor reports a 25-year record, arguing that only a full market cycle separates investing skill from luck.

BRK.A $1.1T

The Rational Walk Jan 6

Observations from a de-SPAC liquidation.

Electric Last Mile Solutions sold assets for $104.6 million after its $5 million OTC market cap reflected a Chapter 7 liquidation and…

ELMSQ $16M

Obscure Stocks Jan 1

Tullow Oil: Fire Sale

Tullow Oil faces falling Ghana production, heavy debt and tax-arbitration risk as Kosmos weighs a possible acquisition structure.

KOS $1.7B

Brevarthan Research Dec 12

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

ICBC’s chairman describes embedding Chinese Communist Party leadership, anti-corruption campaigns and Xi Jinping Thought into governance at…

IDCBF $425B

John Hempton's Newsletter Nov 16

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Laughing Water Capital on X

Fred Liu on X

Kuppy on X

Fajasy on X

George Noble on X

Broken Moats on X

Calvin Blissett on X

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