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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $103B
Yet Another Value Podcast 82 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Looks like Nike $NKE isn't able to just do it anymore. It will need a significant amount of energy and work to regain its place in stores. I remember reading in Phil Knight's Shoe Dog book that his coach Bill Bowerman felt that runners only had a limited number of all-out races in their legs. I think they were referring to the legendary runner Prefontaine who unfortunately died in a car crash late one night in Eugene, Oregon. Incidentally I was in Eugene last year with some friends for a Ducks game and we crossed Pre's rock a few times as we drove up to our Airbnb in the hills above the University of Oregon. I hope Nike has a few more all-out races left in it. Overall I don't feel like the brand is impaired in the eyes of consumers despite their recent preference for On $ONON and Hoka $DECK. Disclosure: I am long $ONON but have been watching $NKE closely.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

One AI data labeling contract could be worth multiples of the $500,586 of revenue Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) booked in FY2026. Its CEO said in a new interview that data labeling companies (firms that turn experts’ knowledge into training data for AI labs) have asked the company to help label malware, and that most of its engineering focus is now on training its own AI model to read malware binaries. Nubeva now has three ways to pay off, up from two: → Having AI write the decryptors for its key-capture software, Ransomware Reversal (NuRR), so Nubeva can grow again or attract a partner/buyer. → A partnership or sale following the approval of all four AI patents. → Selling binary analysis (labeling what malware programs do) to data labeling companies, which could also attract a partner/buyer. Moreover, a data labeling contract wouldn’t depend on NuRR’s sales or on AI writing its decryptors, so it could come before either of the other two routes. CEO Randy Chou gave no price, volume, or timeline for a contract. But if you were to extrapolate the $200-250/hour that Mercor, one of the largest data labeling companies, pays its security experts, one full-time contractor (~2,000 hours/year) would earn $400-500K/year, just about Nubeva’s FY2026 revenue of $500,586. That implies Nubeva could earn multiples of its revenue from a single data labeling contract if its engineers and model can do the work of several contractors. A contract worth three of Mercor’s full-time experts ($1.2-1.5M/year) would be 2.4-3.0x its FY2026 revenue.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

$AGLT (Agility Robotics) has cleared SEC review for public listing through $CCXI If you want an estimate timeline: ~Oct 13 (today): SEC S-4 declared effective ~Nov 2nd (shareholder vote): for merger approval ~November: Merger closing and ticker goes live for trading. Company’s official statement was: “The business combination remains subject to approval by Churchill XI shareholders and other customary closing conditions, and is expected to close in November 2026.” So likely less than a month away for the first pure play US humanoid company to go live!

Investor Letters

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Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 10 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 11 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 6 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $404M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $126B
P Equity Research 37 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $12B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

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