Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $103B
Yet Another Value Podcast 81 clicks

From X

@BrokenMoats 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Quickly back to very attractive levels to put back on short exposure on the software sector after the manic move in Q3 and digestion in September before the sudden crash up in the past 10 days..... AI wins software is in trouble - faster disruption more competition, pricing pressure AI trade is over, software is going to catch down as the market will tank and this won't sit that out (the are not cheap) Disruption and pricing is the tailwind, now valuation is too. Rates don't hurt either as up until recently these were considered long duration assets Recent results were status quo for most (no real acceleration) and pitch AI cohort growth as growing xx% but its not uplifting the total growth they are just changing what they charge for to show the street what it wants to hear) -- that phase is over, valuations are in many cases at year and multi year highs. SBC still a problem. Now comes renewals in the back of this year and thats where the issues will start to emerge on retention and pricing. An thats day 1 they will snowball overtime for the vast majority of these companies. Plenty of names to choose from: $PAYC $DOCU $TEAM $DDOG $PCTY $GDDY $RNG
@ParadisLabs 3 clicks

Paradis on X

An example that there are always trades in the market. $NAVN +12% in a ~couple weeks while sentiment & flows for semis/bottlenecks has fallen off. If anyone wants a Navan investment thesis: Navan is a corporate travel and expense platform. I believed that the market punished the stock (-22%) after Q2 earnings for no good reason. Plus, I also heard some pretty big investors bought the dip aggressively. It makes sense to follow the flows sometimes when fundamentals align. - Total GBV rose 45% to >$3B driven by new customers, ramping cohorts, and expansion of installed base. - Enterprise customers: Continued momentum in the enterprise market. - AI platform adoption: Over 50% of AI calls now run on Navan's proprietary models, with its AI support agent handling about 60% of customer interactions. Ultimately, investors were disappointed because they reported rising op. costs and expanded op. losses. But the market completely overlooked the fact that corporate traven demand has skyrocketed w/ business travel in the US generating $624B in GDP (Global Business Travel Association). Going forwards, I believe that enterprises will look for AI-native solutions that save them time and money while also resulting in better outcomes for the customer. From what I hear, Navan's AI is pretty sweet. ***I have taken profits to bolster my cash piles. Also, $IOT is flat over the same period.

Investor Letters

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Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 10 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 11 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 6 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $404M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $126B
P Equity Research 37 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $12B
CV's Substack 3 clicks

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