Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $103B

Yet Another Value Podcast 30h ago 83 clicks

23h ago SHEN $556M

Private Equity Prints Multibaggers With This Pattern. No One is Talking About It.

Phynvesting 16 clicks

28h ago COHR $62B

Coherent | Management Call

P Equity Research 17 clicks

From X

@LaughingH20Cap 19h ago 5 clicks

Laughing Water Capital on X

@bufetmastermind @secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty maybe i don't. I'd appreciate if you could explain. they had said 50% FCF margin on $1B in sales. $LQDA is still going to get to $1B in sales. Its just going to take longer. Tell me why 50% FCF margins are not in play. Bonus points if you can tell why they won't reduce costs

@HaydenCapital 21h ago 1 click

Fred Liu on X

Is Tiktok Shop slowing? J&T Express just reported SE Asia parcel volumes, and are flat for the year at ~31M per day for the last few qtrs. They're guiding to 50-55% full year growth, implying Q4 holiday season only ramps to 33-37M parcels. Evidence Shopee's VIP & logistics investments are working? $SE $1519.HK

@hkuppy 21h ago 1 click

Kuppy on X

I’m sure that $CRWV is money good on funding its gazillions of chip purchase orders, as long as someone funds $CRWV…🤭🤭 https://t.co/TOnS6iGurC

@StableBread 22h ago

Fajasy on X

Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners II $ATII, the SPAC taking atomic-scale coatings maker Forge Nano public, amended the $100M lead commitment in its PIPE on October 13, three days before the October 16 merger vote. Alyeska, the Chicago hedge fund behind that $100M, will now take 7,031,175 of its 10M shares as pre-funded warrants, up from the 3M planned as of September 24. Those warrants cost $0.0001/share to exercise and never expire, but they don't vote until exercised, and Alyeska can cap its ownership at 4.9%, 9.9%, or 19.9% of the shares. ATII and its sponsor, with the consent of BTIG (the bank that ran ATII's IPO), also waived the transfer restrictions on the 3M founder shares the sponsor hands Alyeska for free at close. Counting the founder share transfer, Alyeska's effective cost is $7.69/share, and the S-4 (the merger filing) says so directly. So the $100M still lands at close, but the fund providing it got more flexible terms the day before ATII holders had to decide whether to redeem.

@gnoble79 22h ago 7 clicks

George Noble on X

Keith, you are a total POS. You belong in jail for securities fraud. I own you. You laughed at me first shorting $OOEN at 8. You are such a pathetic, odious pile of garbage. So pathetic. The entire world is laughing at you. Thanks for playing. $OPEN @rabois @ericjackson @APompliano @

@BrokenMoats 23h ago 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP

@calvinblissett 23h ago 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

@valuedontlie Forgive me I haven’t done the work I may soon, isn’t the whole point of $VITL is having a brand and being specialized to insulate it from cyclicality to see degree? I’m one of those people who pay up for pasture raised no matter what

@BlueDuckCap 23h ago 5 clicks

BDC on X

It's been 189 days since @evanspiegel had a confirmed sale. The longest sales void ever, per what we can discern from filings. He's in a blackout window now. If the sales do not resume post Q3 window opening then that would seem bullish. We would love an insider buy, too. Evan buys stock here we would think $SNAP is +10% on that day. At least. Not advice. Just pointing out the cadence of form 4's and lack of historical insider buying.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending: Discount Is Attractive, But Credit Has Not Stabilized; Hold

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending trades at a 32% NAV discount as non-accruals reach 2.9%, NII and NAV decline, and dividend coverage falls to…

MSDL $1.5B

Rubicon Associates 30h ago 1 click

Deep Dive: Applied Materials ($AMAT)

Applied Materials leads wafer-fab deposition and ranks third in etch, positioning it for tougher 3D chip manufacturing as investors weigh a…

AMAT $359B

Rebound Capital 33h ago 26 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LVI

Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.

HWM $86BJBHT $22B

Monte Independent Investment Research 35h ago 12 clicks

Palantir Is Not C3.Ai, But C3.Ai Wrote Its Watch List - Downgrade Palantir To Hold, Sell C3.Ai

Palantir is cut to Hold after a 35% multiple-driven rally, while C3.ai is rated Sell on stalled revenue, expensive valuation and weak…

PLTR $498B

The Alpha Analyst 35h ago 7 clicks

Lennar: The Misstep Is Temporary, the Operating Machine Is Not

Lennar cut build times to 116 days and adopted an asset-light land model, while gross margin fell to 15.8% from 27.5% as land costs rose.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global 35h ago 12 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global 35h ago 10 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global 35h ago 11 clicks

Eaton: Strong Backlog And Margin Recovery Support The Buy Case

Eaton’s backlog, data-center, grid and aerospace demand, plus a 450–500 bp H2 2026 Electrical Americas margin recovery, support the growth…

ETN $165B

Value Capital Research 39h ago 5 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B

Asian Century Stocks 41h ago 6 clicks

Scarcity is the boogey man for ASML, Applied Materials

ASML’s strong quarterly results failed to prevent a selloff, as AI investors focused on scarcity fears facing chip-equipment makers…

AMAT $359B

The Technology Letter 46h ago 5 clicks

BW · short

Babcock & Wilcox

Babcock & Wilcox is priced for AI power demand despite a one-time related-party project, with FY2028 EBITDA 35% below consensus implying…

BW $748M

Value Investors Club Jul 15 2 clicks

Ex-Goldman MD: "Credit Markets Move in Step Functions"

Geoffrey Williams explains CMBS underwriting, post-GFC securitized-credit risk transfer and why credit markets reprice in step functions.

GS $260B

Odds on Open Oct 8 3 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Oct’26

Intuitive Surgical, down 32% from its January 2025 peak, faces slower US procedure growth and new robotic-surgery rivals despite $10.1…

ISRG $149B

Rebound Capital Oct 8 2 clicks

Credo: The Market Is Wrong About Optics, And That's Creating A Buying Opportunity

Credo expects optical revenue to reach $600 million in FY27 after Q1 revenue grew 114.7% year over year, expanding from AEC cables into AI…

CRDO $38B

Analysis Fundamental Oct 8 4 clicks

Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT)

Vertiv's 33% stock decline followed a 2026 forecast increase, despite a $15 billion backlog and rising AI data-center demand for power and…

VRT $91B

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets Oct 8

Lesaka: A $4.69 Stock With a $20–30 Case

Lesaka CEO Ali Mazanderani has bought more than $10 million of stock while pursuing a $20 to $30 valuation case through targeted…

LSAK $405M

Mispriced Assets Oct 8 5 clicks

Alamar: The Consumables Flywheel Is Just Getting Started

Alamar Biosciences' consumables revenue rose 147% in 2Q26, lifting gross margin to 60% as the company expands into clinical diagnostics.

ALMR $1.6B

Petri Dish Reports Oct 8

What I’ve Been Up To

Cogent Communications and AI data-center bottlenecks feature in a newsletter update on recruiting, financial media and conference takeaways.

CCOI $430M

Stock Thoughts Oct 7 3 clicks

Undercovered Dozen: Brookfield Renewable, Annaly Capital, Seagate, And More

Undercovered Dozen spotlights 12 lesser-covered stocks, including Brookfield Renewable, Annaly Capital and Seagate.

BEP $8.7BNLY $14B

The Undercovered Dozen Oct 7

Lesaka: Why He's Betting Big | Ali Mazanderani | Ep. 5

Lesaka’s executive chairman has invested more than $10 million personally and targets EPS compounding above 40% through consumer, merchant…

LSAK $405M

Mispriced Assets Oct 7 2 clicks

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Laughing Water Capital on X

Fred Liu on X

Kuppy on X

Fajasy on X

George Noble on X

Broken Moats on X

Calvin Blissett on X

BDC on X

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