Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7B

Yet Another Value Podcast 31h ago 84 clicks

25h ago SHEN $556M

Private Equity Prints Multibaggers With This Pattern. No One is Talking About It.

Phynvesting 16 clicks

Oct 13 SBDXF $497M

SED Energy: The 40% Dividend. Signal or Noise?

Cannibal Stocks 7 clicks

From X

@LaughingH20Cap 21h ago 5 clicks

Laughing Water Capital on X

@bufetmastermind @secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty maybe i don't. I'd appreciate if you could explain. they had said 50% FCF margin on $1B in sales. $LQDA is still going to get to $1B in sales. Its just going to take longer. Tell me why 50% FCF margins are not in play. Bonus points if you can tell why they won't reduce costs

@StableBread 23h ago

Fajasy on X

Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners II $ATII, the SPAC taking atomic-scale coatings maker Forge Nano public, amended the $100M lead commitment in its PIPE on October 13, three days before the October 16 merger vote. Alyeska, the Chicago hedge fund behind that $100M, will now take 7,031,175 of its 10M shares as pre-funded warrants, up from the 3M planned as of September 24. Those warrants cost $0.0001/share to exercise and never expire, but they don't vote until exercised, and Alyeska can cap its ownership at 4.9%, 9.9%, or 19.9% of the shares. ATII and its sponsor, with the consent of BTIG (the bank that ran ATII's IPO), also waived the transfer restrictions on the 3M founder shares the sponsor hands Alyeska for free at close. Counting the founder share transfer, Alyeska's effective cost is $7.69/share, and the S-4 (the merger filing) says so directly. So the $100M still lands at close, but the fund providing it got more flexible terms the day before ATII holders had to decide whether to redeem.

@gnoble79 24h ago 7 clicks

George Noble on X

Keith, you are a total POS. You belong in jail for securities fraud. I own you. You laughed at me first shorting $OOEN at 8. You are such a pathetic, odious pile of garbage. So pathetic. The entire world is laughing at you. Thanks for playing. $OPEN @rabois @ericjackson @APompliano @

@BrokenMoats 24h ago 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP

@calvinblissett 24h ago 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

@valuedontlie Forgive me I haven’t done the work I may soon, isn’t the whole point of $VITL is having a brand and being specialized to insulate it from cyclicality to see degree? I’m one of those people who pay up for pasture raised no matter what

@BlueDuckCap 25h ago 5 clicks

BDC on X

It's been 189 days since @evanspiegel had a confirmed sale. The longest sales void ever, per what we can discern from filings. He's in a blackout window now. If the sales do not resume post Q3 window opening then that would seem bullish. We would love an insider buy, too. Evan buys stock here we would think $SNAP is +10% on that day. At least. Not advice. Just pointing out the cadence of form 4's and lack of historical insider buying.

@finphysnerd 25h ago

Myles on X

Bizarre update at $HTT with the company facing a large tax liability on behalf of the CEO. I'm genuinely puzzled with how to perceive this. Chatgpt suggests that the explanation is reasonable, but the company paying taxes for the CEO feels like such an obvious red flag. The stock https://t.co/cl7C0ai5XB https://t.co/z7fcATOYXe

@ACapitalLP 25h ago 3 clicks

A Capital on X

$KYIV https://t.co/bGd6IJ4Xl0

GitLab Will Finally Break GitHub's Monopoly In 2027

GTLB $8.9B

Ignacio Planas Gonzalez Oct 13

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXXI

Park Aerospace reported 27% revenue growth and 72% EPS growth, supported by composite materials for Airbus engines and PAC-3 rocket motors.

PKE $592M

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 13 4 clicks

CarGurus ($CARG): The Auto Trader of America, Priced Like a Used Car

CarGurus, the largest U.S. auto-shopping marketplace, trades near $29 despite roughly $1 billion in expected revenue, $300 million in free…

CARG $2.6B

Substack von Philipp Oct 13 9 clicks

The Final Phase of This Bull Market Will Be Massive | Charles Lemonides

Charles Lemonides argues the 18-year bull market has not reached its late-stage liftoff, pairing value-oriented semiconductor longs with…

LYFT $6.2B

The Monetary Matters Network Oct 12 7 clicks

Bristlemoon September 2026 Quarterly Letter

Bristlemoon Global Fund lost 8.4% in the September quarter and added shorts in Campbell’s, REA Group, MasterBrand and Polaris amid narrow…

CPB $5.7BMBC $1.3B

Bristlemoon Capital Oct 12 8 clicks

Quick Value #334 - Flowers Foods (FLO)

Flowers Foods trades at 7.5x earnings after an 80% decline, as a 50% dividend cut and potential asset sale aim to reduce leverage following…

FLO $1.3B

Value Don't Lie Oct 12 8 clicks

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

LQDA $2.4B

Trade Ideas Flow Oct 12 4 clicks

Global-e: The Invisible Engine Behind the Brands You Buy From Directly Online! $GLBE

Global-e provides cross-border merchant-of-record, payments, tax and fulfillment services to more than 1,500 brands, including Shopify…

GLBE $6.4B

Substack von Philipp Oct 12 6 clicks

Penguin Solutions: Explosive AI Growth At A Surprisingly Low Valuation

Penguin Solutions grew FY2026 revenue 26% as AI data-center and memory demand expanded, while negative free cash flow and cyclical memory…

PENG $3.5B

Investor Overview Oct 12 5 clicks

H&R REIT, an opportunity in a corrupt process

H&R REIT's proposed GO Residential transaction faces investor opposition over rejected $12.50 cash bids, insider benefits and tax…

GONYF $499M

Nugget Capital Partner's Substack Oct 12 2 clicks

HRVFF · long

Harvia Oyj

HRVFF $927M

Value Investors Club Jul 7 2 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #7: Sep 17, 2026

Turning Point Brands awaits FDA pouch approval, Meitec benefits from Japan’s engineer shortage, and Viemed gains from Medicare’s…

TPB $1.1BVMD $366M

Trade Ideas Flow Sep 17

Vizsla Silver (VZLA)

Vizsla Silver's Panuco project in Sinaloa remains shut after nine workers were found dead, delaying construction of a fully funded 17.4 Moz…

VZLA $1.7B

Triple S Special Situations Investing Sep 17 1 click

DiamondRock Hospitality Company: Still A Buy, Though Not As Cheap

DiamondRock Hospitality raised 2026 guidance after Q2 RevPAR rose 7%, AFFO climbed 25.7% to $0.44 a share, and net debt to EBITDA reached…

DRH $2.7B

Philip Wang Sep 17

Figure Technology (FIGR): The "Hypoport of America" Growing 100% With 55% EBITDA Margins – and Priced Like the Story Is Broken

Figure Technology's HELOC platform grew Q2 2026 revenue 113% with a 54.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, while shares trade 57% below January's…

FIGR $5.7B

Substack von Philipp Sep 17 7 clicks

Copart 4Q26 Business Update: Thesis Shift?

Copart’s 4Q26 revenue grew 2.4% as U.S. insurance volumes fell 7.5%, while a customer loss and higher yard costs pressured profits despite…

ACVA $1.8B

Speedwell Research Sep 16 1 click

LifeMD: Still Undervalued Despite Earnings Miss

LifeMD cut 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance as subscribers fell and customer acquisition costs reached 59% of revenue, prompting a shift…

LFMD $119M

Eli Gooch Sep 16

Research Roundup Vol. LII

Dell’s AI-server demand and Microchip’s data-center components lead updates on Cirrus Logic and STMicroelectronics, alongside a weekly…

CRUS $5.3B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 16 1 click

Forget Drones: Ondas Is Building An Autonomous Warfare Ecosystem

Ondas Holdings, ONDS, grew Q2 2026 revenue 1,235% to $83.7 million after acquisitions and is integrating drone and autonomous warfare…

ONDS $3.9B

Analysis Fundamental Sep 16 1 click

Ethos' Biggest Distributor by Head Count Ranked It Last on Stage

Ethos relies on three carriers for 88% of revenue as TruStage payment failures triggered policy lapses and Family First Life publicly…

LIFE $2.6B

Hunterbrook Sep 15 4 clicks

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Laughing Water Capital on X

Fajasy on X

George Noble on X

Broken Moats on X

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BDC on X

Myles on X

A Capital on X

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