Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7B

Yet Another Value Podcast 27h ago 83 clicks

21h ago SHEN $556M

Private Equity Prints Multibaggers With This Pattern. No One is Talking About It.

Phynvesting 16 clicks

Oct 13 SBDXF $497M

SED Energy: The 40% Dividend. Signal or Noise?

Cannibal Stocks 7 clicks

From X

@LaughingH20Cap 17h ago 5 clicks

Laughing Water Capital on X

@bufetmastermind @secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty maybe i don't. I'd appreciate if you could explain. they had said 50% FCF margin on $1B in sales. $LQDA is still going to get to $1B in sales. Its just going to take longer. Tell me why 50% FCF margins are not in play. Bonus points if you can tell why they won't reduce costs

@gnoble79 20h ago 7 clicks

George Noble on X

Keith, you are a total POS. You belong in jail for securities fraud. I own you. You laughed at me first shorting $OOEN at 8. You are such a pathetic, odious pile of garbage. So pathetic. The entire world is laughing at you. Thanks for playing. $OPEN @rabois @ericjackson @APompliano @

@BrokenMoats 20h ago 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP

@calvinblissett 21h ago 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

@valuedontlie Forgive me I haven’t done the work I may soon, isn’t the whole point of $VITL is having a brand and being specialized to insulate it from cyclicality to see degree? I’m one of those people who pay up for pasture raised no matter what

@BlueDuckCap 21h ago 5 clicks

BDC on X

It's been 189 days since @evanspiegel had a confirmed sale. The longest sales void ever, per what we can discern from filings. He's in a blackout window now. If the sales do not resume post Q3 window opening then that would seem bullish. We would love an insider buy, too. Evan buys stock here we would think $SNAP is +10% on that day. At least. Not advice. Just pointing out the cadence of form 4's and lack of historical insider buying.

@finphysnerd 21h ago

Myles on X

Bizarre update at $HTT with the company facing a large tax liability on behalf of the CEO. I'm genuinely puzzled with how to perceive this. Chatgpt suggests that the explanation is reasonable, but the company paying taxes for the CEO feels like such an obvious red flag. The stock https://t.co/cl7C0ai5XB https://t.co/z7fcATOYXe

@ACapitalLP 21h ago 3 clicks

A Capital on X

$KYIV https://t.co/bGd6IJ4Xl0

@DeepSailCapital 22h ago 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

$DJT Downside still 100% from here https://t.co/6YIEeHfC3e

GitLab Will Finally Break GitHub's Monopoly In 2027

GTLB $8.9B

Ignacio Planas Gonzalez Oct 13

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXXI

Park Aerospace reported 27% revenue growth and 72% EPS growth, supported by composite materials for Airbus engines and PAC-3 rocket motors.

PKE $592M

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 13 4 clicks

CarGurus ($CARG): The Auto Trader of America, Priced Like a Used Car

CarGurus, the largest U.S. auto-shopping marketplace, trades near $29 despite roughly $1 billion in expected revenue, $300 million in free…

CARG $2.6B

Substack von Philipp Oct 13 9 clicks

The Final Phase of This Bull Market Will Be Massive | Charles Lemonides

Charles Lemonides argues the 18-year bull market has not reached its late-stage liftoff, pairing value-oriented semiconductor longs with…

LYFT $6.2B

The Monetary Matters Network Oct 12 7 clicks

Bristlemoon September 2026 Quarterly Letter

Bristlemoon Global Fund lost 8.4% in the September quarter and added shorts in Campbell’s, REA Group, MasterBrand and Polaris amid narrow…

CPB $5.7BMBC $1.3B

Bristlemoon Capital Oct 12 8 clicks

Quick Value #334 - Flowers Foods (FLO)

Flowers Foods trades at 7.5x earnings after an 80% decline, as a 50% dividend cut and potential asset sale aim to reduce leverage following…

FLO $1.3B

Value Don't Lie Oct 12 8 clicks

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

LQDA $2.4B

Trade Ideas Flow Oct 12 4 clicks

Global-e: The Invisible Engine Behind the Brands You Buy From Directly Online! $GLBE

Global-e provides cross-border merchant-of-record, payments, tax and fulfillment services to more than 1,500 brands, including Shopify…

GLBE $6.4B

Substack von Philipp Oct 12 6 clicks

Penguin Solutions: Explosive AI Growth At A Surprisingly Low Valuation

Penguin Solutions grew FY2026 revenue 26% as AI data-center and memory demand expanded, while negative free cash flow and cyclical memory…

PENG $3.5B

Investor Overview Oct 12 5 clicks

H&R REIT, an opportunity in a corrupt process

H&R REIT's proposed GO Residential transaction faces investor opposition over rejected $12.50 cash bids, insider benefits and tax…

GONYF $499M

Nugget Capital Partner's Substack Oct 12 2 clicks

SITE · long

Siteone Landscape Supply INC

SiteOne Landscape Supply, a 673-branch distributor, reaches roughly half of U.S.

SITE $3.8B

Value Investors Club Jul 10 2 clicks

Research & Analysis: The Aaon Group (NASDAQ: AAON)

AAON's BASX data-center cooling business targets $1 million to $1.5 million per megawatt, with new capacity and backlog conversion expected…

AAON $7B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 25 6 clicks

Alsea: Durable Growth at 5.4x EBITDA (Ticker: ALSEA)

Alsea, Mexico’s Starbucks, Domino’s and Burger King franchise operator, trades at 5.4x EBITDA while funding remodels, Mexican expansion and…

ALSSF $2.1B

Emerging Moats Research Sep 25

Firefly Aerospace q2’26 Earnings Update

Firefly Aerospace ended Q2 2026 with $1.5 billion backlog and a 2.49x book-to-bill ratio, adding lunar, defense and launch contracts for…

FLY $3.1B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 24 15 clicks

Birkenstock: Sector-Leading Growth At An Attractive Valuation

Birkenstock targets 13–15% annual revenue growth through FY2028, driven by APAC expansion and closed-toe footwear, while trading at 13.44…

BIRK $5.6B

Roman Vitasek Sep 24 4 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #8: Sep 24, 2026

ResMed benefits as Eli Lilly-funded sleep-apnoea diagnoses expand PAP demand, while NOV’s geothermal cutters and Po Valley’s unhedged…

NOV $6.7B

Trade Ideas Flow Sep 24

Fast Growth, Weak Controls: The Trouble Beneath Kestra Medical ($KMTS)

Kestra Medical’s growth was flattered by reserve benefits, while weak WCD compliance and Element’s Jewel patch threaten ASSURE’s advantage.

KMTS $1.6B

Shallow Dives Sep 23

Kronos Worldwide: Benefiting From Sulfur Shortage

Kronos Worldwide’s 27% inventory reduction added $120 million in cash inflows as chloride-based TiO₂ demand rises amid a sulfur shortage.

KRO $853M

Given Mahlangu Sep 23

A special situation with a 23% spread (110% IRR) by Q4 2026. Where the worst-case scenario is the deal closing and upside is higher if it doesn’t

ZIM’s proposed deal carries a claimed 23% spread and 110% IRR by Q4 2026, with Q3 and Q4 dividends potentially raising returns if closing…

ZIM $3.6B

Calvin Blissett Sep 23 13 clicks

Turning Point Brands: The Market Is Now Overly Concerned (Rating Upgrade)

Turning Point Brands reaffirmed 2026 guidance after a CEO change, while ALP and FRE expansion has compressed margins through marketing and…

TPB $1.1B

Caffital Research Sep 23 1 click

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Laughing Water Capital on X

George Noble on X

Broken Moats on X

Calvin Blissett on X

BDC on X

Myles on X

A Capital on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

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