Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Monday, October 12, 2026

Back to today

H&R REIT, an opportunity in a corrupt process

H&R REIT's proposed GO Residential transaction faces investor opposition over rejected $12.50 cash bids, insider benefits and tax allocation, with critics seeking to block the deal.

GONYF $499M
Nugget Capital Partner's Substack 2 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

$EVLV i'm getting something like -.2/sh of real earnigns right now, and something in that ball park for next year as a base case. The downside is significant PT <3/sh if they are unable to grow into their margins, or face continuous pressure from opengate. If they succeed (let's say 25% growth and margin improvement), i also see limited upside: Here's how i get my Earnings number: Adj. EBITDA: +$15M Stock comp: -$23M Fleet wear (D&A + retired units): -$29M Interest, growth capex, net one-offs: -$3M earnings of about -$40M, or -$0.20/sh Current management missed 3 of 4 gross margin guides, and the promised shift toward subscription reversed twice. Recent trends: Revenue +34%, but ARR only +20% (was 34% five quarters ago). Backlog (RPO) up only mid-teens Gross margin 58% → 50% in two years New ARR per unit added: ~$17K in 2024 → ~$10K now Here's how i get limited upside in the bull case: revenue grow 25% a year to about $557M in 2031 adj. EBITDA margin rises from 8.5% to 25% by 2031, then 27% by terminal year 2040 or so. SBC falls to 5–7% of revenue and fleet wear to 10–12%; Assuming a 9% required return, i am getting around 4.5/sh which is the current stock price. Are they subscale? Don't they have like 9k units deployed? That's subscale? What exactly are the "scale" advantages for this type of company? How good is their product vs opengate as a total cost of ownership? doesn't look good for evolv. Says Evolv is 5x the price over 4 years but little differentiation in terms of throughput and accuracy. Why would anyone buy evolv. The school contracts covered by the FTC settlement date from April 2022 through June 2023, and on 4-year terms they renew in 2026–27. We will just see what happens thousands of units are up for renewal or if there is some switching that happens.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

I listened to all Whitney Wolfe Heard interviews, that gave me a lot of confidence she would/will improve the consumer experience relentlessly, the business wasn’t/isn’t declining as much as perceived or sentiment makes it out to be. Even if it continued melting at the current pace and never growing the FCF would create immense value for equity holders. I don’t think it will continue melting though as they update and iterate on the experience and resume marketing spend. I think resuming marketing spend would be a big catalyst in terms of returning to growth that wasn’t reflected in the stock . $BMBL

Investor Letters

All letters

What I’ve Been Up To

Cogent Communications and AI data-center bottlenecks feature in a newsletter update on recruiting, financial media and conference takeaways.

CCOI $430M
Stock Thoughts 3 clicks

Not So Fast

Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.

EVC $598M
The Mikro Kap 3 clicks
SFIX · long

Stitch Fix INC

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

SFIX $370M
Value Investors Club 1 click

EVC Update

EVC reported a solid second quarter and outlook.

EVC $598M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 15 clicks

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…

CCOI $430M
Yet Another Value Podcast 13 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 107

YouTube 4

Blogs 17

Seeking Alpha 49 of 225

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

88 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

189 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.