Monday, October 12, 2026

The Final Phase of This Bull Market Will Be Massive | Charles Lemonides

Charles Lemonides argues the 18-year bull market has not reached its late-stage liftoff, pairing value-oriented semiconductor longs with shorts in overvalued names.

LYFT $6.5B

The Monetary Matters Network Oct 12 7 clicks

Oct 12 CPB $6B

Bristlemoon September 2026 Quarterly Letter

Bristlemoon Capital 8 clicks

Oct 12 FLO $1.3B

Quick Value #334 - Flowers Foods (FLO)

Value Don't Lie 8 clicks

From X

@stockgutter Oct 12

SG on X

likely to return to $3 imo $CD https://t.co/0ff0aX4f7D

@irbezek Oct 12

Ian Bezek on X

@finphysnerd Ackman's been on a real heater lately with his smallcap pumps. Remember $HTZ?

@KEDM_COM Oct 12 4 clicks

KEDM.com on X

Palm Valley Capital Fund bought even more of their largest position, Rayonier $RYN, during the quarter. The Fund estimated that the timberland REIT is trading at a meaningful discount to its estimated value, driven mainly by weak lumber prices. Shares continue to derate even as the company generates strong free cash flow. It now has a 5.6% dividend yield.

@BarbarianCap Oct 12

Barbarian Capital on X

"A bench trial is slated to begin Oct. 19 and the proceeding is expected to last about two weeks." Albertsons Wants $8 Billion From Kroger After Failed Merger $KR $ACI https://t.co/r7M6LjLYY5

@BarbarianCap Oct 12

Barbarian Capital on X

Dating-App Company Bumble in Advanced Talks to Go Private at $1 Billion Valuation $BMBL https://t.co/lTRHp5bYTo

@valuedontlie Oct 12 4 clicks

Colin King on X

Anyone following $NOMD with a take on their recent investor day presentation?

@finphysnerd Oct 12 1 click

Myles on X

Remember when everyone was pitching $FNMA... https://t.co/4lSodetlUl

@Fierce__beast Oct 12

Fierce_beast on X

$EVLV i'm getting something like -.2/sh of real earnigns right now, and something in that ball park for next year as a base case. The downside is significant PT <3/sh if they are unable to grow into their margins, or face continuous pressure from opengate. If they succeed (let's say 25% growth and margin improvement), i also see limited upside: Here's how i get my Earnings number: Adj. EBITDA: +$15M Stock comp: -$23M Fleet wear (D&A + retired units): -$29M Interest, growth capex, net one-offs: -$3M earnings of about -$40M, or -$0.20/sh Current management missed 3 of 4 gross margin guides, and the promised shift toward subscription reversed twice. Recent trends: Revenue +34%, but ARR only +20% (was 34% five quarters ago). Backlog (RPO) up only mid-teens Gross margin 58% → 50% in two years New ARR per unit added: ~$17K in 2024 → ~$10K now Here's how i get limited upside in the bull case: revenue grow 25% a year to about $557M in 2031 adj. EBITDA margin rises from 8.5% to 25% by 2031, then 27% by terminal year 2040 or so. SBC falls to 5–7% of revenue and fleet wear to 10–12%; Assuming a 9% required return, i am getting around 4.5/sh which is the current stock price. Are they subscale? Don't they have like 9k units deployed? That's subscale? What exactly are the "scale" advantages for this type of company? How good is their product vs opengate as a total cost of ownership? doesn't look good for evolv. Says Evolv is 5x the price over 4 years but little differentiation in terms of throughput and accuracy. Why would anyone buy evolv. The school contracts covered by the FTC settlement date from April 2022 through June 2023, and on 4-year terms they renew in 2026–27. We will just see what happens thousands of units are up for renewal or if there is some switching that happens.

Jumping On The Robotics Train: Initiating Buy On Cognex

Cognex expects 15% revenue growth this year as its RealSense acquisition expands machine-vision exposure to robotic perception, logistics,…

CGNX $9.6B

Fountainhead Oct 12 2 clicks

Global-e: The Invisible Engine Behind the Brands You Buy From Directly Online! $GLBE

Global-e provides cross-border merchant-of-record, payments, tax and fulfillment services to more than 1,500 brands, including Shopify…

GLBE $6.4B

Substack von Philipp Oct 12 6 clicks

H&R REIT, an opportunity in a corrupt process

H&R REIT's proposed GO Residential transaction faces investor opposition over rejected $12.50 cash bids, insider benefits and tax…

GONYF $499M

Nugget Capital Partner's Substack Oct 12 2 clicks

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Hong Kong stocks Value Stocks late in a Bull Market, and Consolidating a Big Short

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common shareholders face at least 90% dilution if Treasury converts its growing senior preferred stakes into…

FNMA $4.2B

Cassandra Unchained Oct 11 5 clicks

Deep Dive: Inter & Co

Inter & Co, Brazil’s second-largest neobank, grew over 20% with controlled delinquencies and 15% book-value compounding while trading at…

INTR $3B

Capitalist Letters Oct 11 7 clicks

Glaukos: Steep Premium For New Therapies And Growth

Glaukos is expanding from glaucoma devices into sustained drug delivery and corneal cross-linking, but GKOS's premium valuation leaves…

GKOS $9.8B

Myriam Alvarez Oct 11 4 clicks

Hippo Holdings ($HIPO): The Insurtech That Stopped Chasing Hype and Started Making Money

Hippo’s insurance platform posted 61% premium growth, a 95.8% combined ratio and a fifth profitable quarter as it shifted toward carrier…

HIPO $906M

Substack von Philipp Oct 10 8 clicks

You Understand Now, Why You Came This Way

Brazil’s October 25 runoff puts Bolsonaro’s likely victory at the center of a bullish regional-stock case; Golar LNG (GLNG) also reports…

GLNG $4.7B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 9 3 clicks

Blackstone Secured Lending: A Solid Balance Sheet But About To Cut Its Dividend - HOLD

Blackstone Secured Lending Fund faces a likely dividend cut after its first shortfall in 28 quarters, despite 1.8% non-accruals, $2.8…

BXSL $6.6B

Rubicon Associates Oct 9 1 click

Hyster Yale (HY) Multibagger potential as confluence of negatives subside. Attractive after markets part services model

Hyster-Yale trades at 0.16 times sales as lift-truck bookings rebound and restructuring targets $85 million to $100 million in annual…

HY $573M

Calvin Blissett Oct 9 3 clicks

LZ · long

Legalzoom.com INC

LegalZoom trades near all-time lows as AI adoption is positioned to accelerate growth.

LZ $1B

Value Investors Club Jun 9

Peru & Colombia Election Results & Investment Outlook

Keiko Fujimori’s expected Peru victory and Abelardo’s win in Colombia reduce regulatory risk for AUNA, whose operations generate roughly…

AUNA $389M

Ian’s Insider Corner Jun 8

MSGS at a Glaring Discount so GO KNICKS GO!

MSGS, owner of the Knicks and Rangers, filed a Form 10 to explore a spinoff as comparable franchise sales support an $11 billion valuation.

MSGS $9.7B

Open Insights Jun 5

Watches of Switzerland (WOSG), TerraVest (TVK) & ContextLogic (LOGC): Earnings Updates

Watches of Switzerland reported 15% constant-currency organic revenue growth and guided FY27 revenue growth of 5-10%, with adjusted EBIT…

LOGC $691M

Hidden Gems Investing Jun 2

Quick Value #316 - MasterBrand Inc (MBC)

MasterBrand's all-stock merger with American Woodmark creates the largest cabinet maker, trading at 7.7 times trough EBITDA including…

MBC $1.4B

Value Don't Lie Jun 1

What I Read This Week

Weekly reading list covers Agnico Eagle, Cameco, Dollar Tree, Meta, Braze and Apollo across mining, retail, AI and insurance.

BRZE $3.5B

Stock Thoughts Jun 1

Portfolio Update May 2026

Portfolio update: sold Nomad Foods, trimmed Copart, added Pool Corp and Floor & Decor, and bought Tractor Supply as the portfolio trails…

FND $4.7B

D Invests Jun 1

eDreams: Disproving the Bears and Regaining Credibility

EDreams cut FY26 Prime-member guidance to 600,000 after Ryanair blocks, while its subscription model lifted Prime to 7.25 million members…

EDDRF $522M

310 Value’s Newsletter May 30 2 clicks

Thoughts on ROIC, Margins and Turnover; Mailbox Money and an Update on Natural Resource Partners (NRP)

Natural Resource Partners is assessed through ROIC, capital-light royalty income and valuation as investors crowd into AI suppliers.

NRP $1.5B

Base Hit Investing May 30

Weekend Digest #345 (Colombia Election, AUNA, BRKR, China & EM Risk)

Weekend Digest #345 previews Colombia’s presidential vote, tracks AUNA’s earnings momentum and Bruker’s recovery, and weighs China risk…

AUNA $389MBRKR $8.6B

Ian’s Insider Corner May 29

Monday, October 12, 2026

SG on X

Ian Bezek on X

KEDM.com on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Colin King on X

Myles on X

Fierce_beast on X

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