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Saturday, October 10, 2026

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Revenue at Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) has fallen 76% since 2023, but it still has ~4 years of cash. Since losing Kroll, its biggest customer, Nubeva’s revenue has dropped from its FY2023 high of $2.07M. Expenses fell 66% over the same period, from $4.03M to $1.36M. Nubeva booked $500,586 in FY2026, across three revenue lines: 1) Software licenses ($204,055, 41% of revenue): Attributed in the MD&A “primarily” to NuRR, its ransomware-recovery product. 2) Subscriptions ($90,819, 18%): NuRR, down from $113,356 in FY2025. The December 2025 interim MD&A blamed the decline on fewer customers renewing. 3) Support and maintenance ($205,712, 41%): The last TLS (web-traffic decryption) customer, paying under a source-code and distribution agreement Nubeva kept when it sold its TLS technology in March 2024. Just two customers made up 82% of FY2026 revenue (41% each). While the concentration risk exists, both customers have continued working with Nubeva. The TLS customer has been paying since before the March 2024 sale, and the license customer since FY2025. Nubeva ended FY2026 with $2,489,316 of cash and money-market funds and no debt beyond a $12,262 pandemic-era SBA loan. Cash fell $600,162 over the year, which means runway is ~4 years ($2,489,316 / $600,162) if nothing material changes. CEO Randy Chou didn’t expect Nubeva to burn cash in 2025. In a March 4, 2024 video posted the day the TLS sale closed, he said the sale would make Nubeva cash-flow positive for calendar 2024, with 2025 “targeted to be the same.” Instead, cash fell $457,706 in the 12 months to January 31, 2026, the closest reported period to calendar 2025 ($3,184,879 to $2,727,173). In other words, the TLS sale didn’t make Nubeva self-funding, so the ~4-year runway is how long Chou has to automate support or sell. Even if both top customers churned, cash would still cover ~2.5 years of operations. Nubeva hasn’t raised equity since a CAD$1.59M private placement in February 2022, and the last warrants expired in FY2025, so dilution has been minimal.
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Half the gold, platinum, and palladium in ore from McCreedy West, the producing mine of Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU), goes to Franco-Nevada $FNV for $1,200 per gold-equivalent ounce, 29.0% of the average gold price in Q4 2025. Magna inherited the deal, a precious metals stream, when it bought McCreedy West from KGHM $KGHPF, the Polish copper giant. A stream is a deal where a financier pays a miner upfront for the right to buy part of its future metal at a discount to market. Magna’s stream gives Franco-Nevada 50% of the gold, platinum, and palladium in ore from McCreedy West and “certain areas” of Levack and Podolsky, until the deposits run out or 2048. Franco-Nevada pays 60% of the monthly average gold price per gold-equivalent ounce (platinum and palladium converted into gold) from McCreedy West, capped at $1,200/oz once gold tops $2,000. In Q2 2026, the stream cut net revenue by US$3.9M, so revenue would have been ~18% higher without the stream. CEO Jason Jessup called the stream “a bit of an overhang” on McCreedy West, and in April said its terms are “definitely open for discussion” with Franco-Nevada. The higher gold climbs, the more the stream costs Magna, and I wouldn’t count on Franco-Nevada softening the terms. Crean Hill, Magna’s permitted nickel mine, carries no Franco-Nevada stream, and Jessup says R2, the high-grade zone Magna found at its flagship Levack mine, has none either. At Q4 2025’s gold price, Magna kept 64.5% of the value of McCreedy West’s gold, platinum, and palladium (50% + 50% × 29.0%). That means a stream-free ounce from Crean Hill or R2 is worth 1.55x as much to Magna as one from McCreedy West (100% / 64.5%). The stream also covers two areas of Levack, including the Morrison deposit. Franco-Nevada’s filings set the price for its Sudbury streams at $400/oz, rising 1% a year from July 2011, and its later increases applied to McCreedy West only, so Levack’s price would’ve reached ~$460/oz by Q4 2025 ($400 × 1.01^14). So at Q4 2025’s gold price, Magna would keep 55.6% of the value of Levack’s streamed ounces (50% + 50% × ($460 / $4,141.90)), less than the 64.5% it kept at McCreedy West.

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