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Tuesday, October 6, 2026

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New Position (ONON): Game is On

On Holding (ONON) is gaining sportswear share, expanding store space and launching soccer with Kylian Mbappé as investors debate U.S. consumer weakness and China growth.

ONON $11B
Aurelion Research 3 clicks

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I tracked the production targets Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) has set for its AI decryptor builder since 2023, and it missed all four! Nubeva’s agent copies the encryption keys ransomware generates during an attack, but a victim can’t use the keys until someone writes a decryptor (a program that reverses the encryption) for the strain behind the attack. Building every decryptor by hand is the capacity issue behind the 2023 exit of Kroll, Nubeva’s biggest customer. Nubeva’s FY2025 and FY2026 MD&As frame the same issue as cost, saying the company’s “current support structure carries costs that are not sustainable at scale.” Nubeva’s fix is to have AI write the decryptors instead. It announced a patent application for an AI decryptor builder in August 2023 and has pitched the builder ever since. Per the FY2026 MD&A, “a private, cryptographically trained AI engine” uses the captured keys to analyze encrypted samples, identifies the decryption method, and writes “the decryptor software, test kits, and documentation.” The goal is “a custom decryptor within an hour” of a customer getting hit by a new strain. Both MD&As also lay out two outcomes: → If automation works: Nubeva “will be positioned to re-expand its commercial footprint” through end users, managed security providers, incident-response firms, security integrations, and cyber insurers. → If automation falls short: Nubeva “will continue to advance and complete its IP portfolio, positioning the Company for strategic partnerships or potential M&A transactions.” Three years on, the AI decryptor builder still isn’t in production. The August 2023 release expected production “later this year,” the FY2024 and FY2025 MD&As said “later this year” again, and the December 2025 interim MD&A said “later this fiscal year.” Then the FY2026 MD&A, filed August 28, 2026, quietly dropped the date altogether. After four missed targets, dropping the date suggests Nubeva’s own builder isn’t close. CEO Randy Chou hinted at the delay in October 2025, saying Nubeva was “still waiting for an automated way to scale support,” which he said was true of “everybody else in the industry.” But the wait may finally be ending. On September 3, 2026 (six days after dropping the date), Nubeva said it had been approved for access to “a frontier artificial intelligence model made available to vetted organizations for authorized defensive cybersecurity work.” Nubeva doesn’t name the model’s provider, but the release came out the same day OpenAI committed $1B of subsidized access to its Daybreak cyber models. If the model is Daybreak, the access isn’t particularly rare. OpenAI said on September 3 that “thousands of defenders across 2,000 approved organizations and workspaces already use Daybreak.” Either way, decryption is where a frontier model could matter most, since writing a decryptor for an unfamiliar strain is the step Nubeva’s engineers still do by hand.

Investor Letters

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Canterra Minerals: Research Note

Canterra Minerals increased Lundberg indicated tonnage 55% to 26.1Mt, with 226.2Kt of contained copper equivalent, supporting a Buchans…

EQX $13B
Atrium Research - Equity Research

Kenorland Minerals: Research Flash

Franco-Nevada bought 10.0 million Kenorland shares, a 12.4% stake, for C$22.2 million in a secondary transaction that issued no new shares.

FNV $46B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 1 click

Solid Power Still Has Promise

Solid Power reported a $0.11 Q2 loss and $419.3 million of cash, with its electrolyte pilot line and BMW and SK On validation central to…

SLDP $528M
Quad 7 Capital 2 clicks
SFIX · long

Stitch Fix INC

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

SFIX $353M
Value Investors Club 1 click

Research Roundup Vol. LIII

Micron’s customer agreements, Analog Devices’ acquisitions, Ondas’ GATE deal and Baker Hughes’ power systems position them for AI…

ADI $197BONDS $4B
Monte Independent Investment Research 4 clicks

CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)

CoreWeave funds GPU data-center expansion with debt backed by $104 billion in contracted revenue, while GPU cloud rentals generate roughly…

CRWV $46B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 9 clicks

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