Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Monday, October 5, 2026

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A Capital on X

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…

Investor Letters

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CNH · long

Cnh Industrial NV

CNH Industrial, the No. 2 global agricultural-equipment OEM, is pitched long at about $10 per share.

CNH $14B
Value Investors Club 1 click

On Holdings: Maintaining Pace

On Holdings expects roughly CHF 3.5 billion in FY26 revenue as running shoes drive growth, while APAC exceeds 20% of sales and apparel…

ONON $12B
TSOH Investment Research

The Black Patch Tobacco Wars

The Black Patch Tobacco Wars show how American Tobacco’s buying power drove Kentucky and Tennessee farmers to organize against below-cost…

BTI $121B
Invariant

Clear the DEC?

Diversified Energy (DEC) has paid $21.84 per share in dividends since June 2017 and trades at $13.35 amid a bullish U.S.

DEC $979M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

Netflix: DCF Valuation

Netflix’s updated DCF values shares at $88.50 versus $69, with slower revenue growth offset by higher margins and revised…

NFLX $511B
Hated Moats

Too Big to Succeed

JPMorgan’s $5 trillion balance sheet and $63.7 trillion derivatives book make Jamie Dimon’s eventual successor one of banking’s hardest…

JPM $889B
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