Monday, October 5, 2026

Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months

Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.

CVE $61B

Bison Insights Oct 5 3 clicks

Oct 5 GFL $15B

The Final Countdown: An Update on GFL’s Sale

310 Value’s Newsletter

Oct 5 CRWV $43B

The Thin Margin of Safety in Selling Compute

MBI Deep Dives 10 clicks

From X

@irbezek Aug 14 2 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@WaterworldCapi1 $jets Bad industry, oil might go up again, consumer spending may roll over, and the new "capacity discipline" is more lucky accident than strategic. Somebody, probably $aal will start dumping capacity on routes again and margins back to zero

@irbezek Aug 14 3 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@lasse108 @ReturnsJourney $intr

@blondesnmoney Aug 14 1 click

Cluseau Investments on X

Blackjack 21 hits 36% YTD, 29% above financials. Performance would've been a bit better actually, but I paper handed $WSBF, $HRTG, and $SNEX. Next week, will be adding a small cap financials name to the list, first new member of the Blackjack 21 in months. Below book, repurchasing shares, extremely niche, it'll be a fun one.

@DeepSailCapital Aug 14

Deep Sail Capital on X

$CLBT - You can make a pretty compelling case that the guidance cut was to kitchen sink the expectations for the new CEO so he has a bottom base to build off of. From the call 4-5 major deals slipped out a quarter, and Genesis isn't ramping as fast as originally thought, but new products are growing +25% & they have tailwinds in terms of FedRamp & YoY US federal basically didn't grow last year. Next quarter they beat, and re-raise guidance and stock is back to $16. 50% return from here in a quarter. Clearly if they can't close deals in Q3 at a faster pace then the recovery takes longer, but seems like good risk-reward here. Full disclosure: I added some at $10.5

@TheBenSchmark Aug 14 2 clicks

JabroniCoin.USD on X

$CENX is a non-AI bottleneck https://t.co/L0PvNNH4HK

@DeepSailCapital Aug 14

Deep Sail Capital on X

Artemis is going to be a huge driver to $LUNR growth over the next 5 years. $2b market cap @ $13 / share kind of feels like early $RKLB at $2b @ $5/share. https://t.co/KaaQ7mFlSt

@ChrisCamillo Aug 14 1 click

Chris Camillo on X

@eager28 @CAndreisen @quazijohir Correct. They’re tied to the same lockup as other pre-IPO investors. I’m not overthinking $SKM it’s simply my public equity proxy for Anthropic.

@stockgutter Aug 13 1 click

SG on X

$NU strong report imo. LFG. I'm long and may add. https://t.co/8sNxzwFADh

Portfolio Update September 2026

Portfolio added Otis Worldwide in the mid-$60s, increased Pool, Copart and Floor & Decor, and sold Berkshire Hathaway.

OTIS $26BCPRT $25B

D Invests Oct 5 1 click

Ciena, A Former Telecom Bust, Is Now In The Early Stages Of A Bona Fide Mega Boom

Ciena’s optical networking equipment sales to stronger telecom customers underpin a 2027 long thesis, unlike its 2000-era boom.

CIEN $57B

Marc Gerstein Oct 5 2 clicks

Brazil could be the Q4 Macro Play – My stock ideas: $NU, $INTR, $PICS and maybe $STNE, $PAGS, $DLO and $MELI

Brazilian fintechs NU, INTR and PICS stand to benefit from a Bolsonaro-led runoff surprise that lowers fiscal risk premiums, rates and the…

NU $75BINTR $3.3B

Substack von Philipp Oct 5 5 clicks

Alliance Resource Partners: A ~10% Yield Backed By Contracted Coal And Growing Royalties

Alliance Resource Partners has 2026 coal sales fully contracted and is expanding oil and gas royalties through AllDale, supporting its 9.8%…

ARLP $3.2B

Timur Mekhantev Oct 5 4 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B

Irrational Analysis Oct 4 3 clicks

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Group 1 paid $1 billion of goodwill for Hennessy’s 10 dealerships, a record $100 million per store, financed largely with $1.25 billion of…

GPI $2.7B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 4 4 clicks

M&T: Buy Reaffirmed, Despite Market Pullback, As Growth And Earnings Story Remain Strong

M&T Bank's 10.4% five-year revenue CAGR, improving net interest margin and commercial loan growth support its earnings resilience despite a…

MTB $31B

Albert Anthony Oct 3 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

LEN $17BMRP $3.7B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

Nike: The Defense Holds, the Offense Is Unproven

Nike targets EBIT margin recovery from 5.2% in FY2027 to 13% by FY2032 as revenue declines persist and wholesale, China and digital remain…

NKE $52B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 3 clicks

Nike, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Nike’s second Latticework program examines the company and the global athletic footwear and apparel industry for professional investors.

NKE $52B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 1 click

BTU · long

Peabody Energy Corporation

Peabody Energy, ticker BTU, is a low-cost producer of thermal and metallurgical coal with mines in the United States and Australia.

BTU $3.1B

Value Investors Club Jul 6 2 clicks

Nike, Part One: The Story

Nike grew from a $1,000 shoe-distribution venture in 1964 into the largest sports brand, using athlete endorsements, product innovation and…

NKE $52B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) Stock Rating: Accumulate After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings

Rocket Lab reported Q2 revenue up 62% to $234.1 million and backlog up 137% to $2.36 billion, while operating losses and cash burn…

RKLB $35BIRDM $4.9B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 2

Research & Analysis | AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR): MRO Holdings Reshapes the Margin Profile

AAR’s $1.8 billion acquisition of a 65% stake in MRO Holdings adds widebody aircraft maintenance and targets a 19% to 20% EBITDA margin by…

AIR $4B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 2 4 clicks

American Healthcare REIT: A Dip Buy Driven By Senior-Care And Outpatient Tailwind

American Healthcare REIT’s senior-housing and outpatient portfolio is driving FFO growth and dividend safety, while a rich valuation limits…

AHR $12B

Albert Anthony Oct 2 1 click

The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings

The Trade Desk's Q2 revenue grew 3% to $715 million as Q3 guidance called for a year-over-year decline; TTD has fallen over 90% from its…

TTD $5.7B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 2 1 click

Belden Inc.: The Ruckus Debt Looks Scarier Than The Math

Belden targets net leverage of 2.9x by 2027 from 3.9x, using RUCKUS's 65%+ gross margins and free cash flow to reduce debt.

BDC $4.1B

Lee Bailey Oct 2

Crocs: Double-Digit Buyback Yield (Ticker: CROX)

Crocs has $2 billion of buyback authorization, more than a third of its market cap, as North American sales stabilize and HeyDude drags on…

CROX $5.6B

Emerging Moats Research Oct 2 4 clicks

Twilio (NYSE: TWLO) Stock Rating: Hold After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings - Distribute Below $260

Twilio posted Q2 revenue of $1.50 billion, up 22%, and guided 16% Q3 growth; the note rates TWLO Hold at $305, with a $260 risk line.

TWLO $43B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 1 1 click

Constellium: The Spread Between Feedstock And End Prices Keeps Widening

Constellium’s widening feedstock-to-end-price spread supports 2026 EBITDA guidance of $980M-$1.02B and free cash flow above $300M.

CSTM $3.5B

Andres Veurink Oct 1

Ian Bezek on X

Ian Bezek on X

Cluseau Investments on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

JabroniCoin.USD on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

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