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Thursday, October 1, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$BFLY the Midjourney ultrasound full body announcement is a highly entertaining read. Sadly I cannot back into what the "ultrasound on a chip" pricing is and what 50,000 units * 40 chips would equate to at Midjourneys target opening in 2031 (as a potential full revenue opportunity). But I do know there are limitations in what ultrasound can scan for versus MRI/CT - their are advantageous for both and why they are used for different imaging needs (pregnancy, organ, blood flow for ultrasound v. skeletal, brain ct) ...So the companies promotion of using ultrasound pools to replace CT is either misleading or an outright lie, it is simply not possible. The story gets worse, they plan on opening spas, with water pools to conduct their scanning. Only doing body composition and no actual medical diagnosis scans to open in SF hopefully in 2027...the maintenance costs will be significant as they have to treat the water before each usage and limits throughput. Plus the renderings imply significant capX that will need to be recouped at some point (either throughput or higher prices than they are leading on). So no idea the propensity of vc funded AI companies to spend irrationally and without regard for economics so perhaps BFLY will be a beneficiary here (seems difficult at their current valuation and the likelihood of Midjourney ever scaling their operation but who knows....) the free spending train rolls on for now. I encourage someone to watch the videos put out by Midjourney its truly something......
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Odd two day movement in $KMX after earnings... Agree with the day 1 action - a stock that came into the report on a blistering run, and while the co. reported "improved" results, there are significant challenges still in front of them. Most of the improvement is driven by a dramatic lowering of sale prices to increase sales (gross profit dollars still lower). And that is a lever that will likely remain a permanence as they try and respond to efforts from $CVNA and others. I will credit them on lowering expenses as well, likely low hanging fruit and moves to reduce ("automate") reconditioning again following the caravan playbook of leaving cars closer to as returned. issues on loans remains in a market that is significantly challenged and does not appear on the verge of improving any time soon. The cha cha move Thursday and Friday would argue sets up a better short opportunity in the name as you have removed the IV from earnings to now look out the next few months on put/spreads looking for a cooling off. *even sell side numbers I put little stock in almost all are below, and most significantly from the current price (one could argue thats bullish to rerate but I see this more like Birk that is behaving more like a squeeze than actual fundamentals, hence the wide divergence)
@BrokenMoats 2 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Pretty incredible market sells off software again aggressively at the same time ramping up public private credit exposed names like $MFC, $ARES, $FG (CEO left suddenly yesterday) all because they ride alongside the aggressive buying in money center banks in financial etc flows ($JPM up 14% in June). Seems like there needs to be some dispersion in public private credit and software - one side at current prices has to be wrong, guessing private credit lower is how the dispersion resolves itself

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Not So Fast

Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.

EVC $634M
The Mikro Kap 4 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LIV

Research Roundup covers AAON's data-center cooling ramp, Knife River's margin recovery, ChronoScale's Microsoft-backed neocloud buildout…

AAON $6.8BKNF $2.9B
Monte Independent Investment Research 1 click
SFIX · long

Stitch Fix INC

Stitch Fix’s 2017 IPO rested on overly ambitious long-term growth expectations and an unrealistic definition of its addressable market.

SFIX $353M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

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