Tuesday, September 29, 2026

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Toll roads in the sky

Asia's elevator boom favors maintenance and modernization providers, with Otis deriving nearly 90% of operating profit from after-sales services rather than new installations.

From X

Uber: The Aggregator on Trial

Uber's $193 billion in gross bookings and $10 billion in free cash flow contrast with modest stock gains as autonomous vehicles and…

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

The Brookfield Moat Masterclass

Brookfield’s BN, BAM, BIP, BEP and BBUC span asset management, infrastructure, renewables and private equity, with BN valued at a 15–20%…

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

PYPL · long

Paypal Holdings INC

PayPal’s valuation implies free cash flow will shrink 9.3% annually over the next decade, framing a long thesis against its recent revenue…

Thoughts on PayPal Buyout Offer

PayPal faces a $60.50-per-share buyout offer from Stripe and Advent, with a rejection or counteroffer above $80 viewed as more likely.

Rebound Watchlist: July 2026

Rebound Capital's July 2026 watchlist puts AeroVironment and Coinbase under review after UnitedHealth rose more than 70% from its low.

New Position: Volatility Merchant

A digital market-infrastructure platform dominant in rates and expanding in credit trades at 22 times free cash flow, with 45%+ FCF margins…

Artificial Bloom

Bloom Energy’s AI data-center fuel-cell growth plans face scrutiny over scandium supply, with Hunterbrook alleging China dependence and…

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