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Monday, September 28, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$FIS I appreciate the ai narrative and stable coins narrative for broad payment sector names...but $FIS at current prices seems like a good Depp value opportunity. In general the rubber band seems very far stretched between the momentum names in semi capX and the ai "losers" and mega cap tech. Whether its sell the news on $MU earnings, end of quarter rebalancing etc, seems we are on the cusp of a rotation. (even if its only short lasting, should be quite volatile as we say several weeks ago). [going long Amzn, select software, fis, select med tech to play that versus short the SOXX, some derivative names like $CAT]
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Question for anyone buying $MU or $SNDK or the like at these levels......how long can these stocks continue to be financed by large tech without large stocks going up in tandem? At some point if you don't buy $AMZN etc alongside $MU the math game, and incentive for large cap tech to continue to finance MU will change.....this part of the dispersion trade not only is difficult to comprehend it actually creates negative fundamentals for the semi complex if it continues to stretch. Fears of equity dilution rightfully sidelines large cap tech buying, but only a matter of time it bleeds into actual CapX if the currency to support spending stops supporting the circular spending
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Odd two day movement in $KMX after earnings... Agree with the day 1 action - a stock that came into the report on a blistering run, and while the co. reported "improved" results, there are significant challenges still in front of them. Most of the improvement is driven by a dramatic lowering of sale prices to increase sales (gross profit dollars still lower). And that is a lever that will likely remain a permanence as they try and respond to efforts from $CVNA and others. I will credit them on lowering expenses as well, likely low hanging fruit and moves to reduce ("automate") reconditioning again following the caravan playbook of leaving cars closer to as returned. issues on loans remains in a market that is significantly challenged and does not appear on the verge of improving any time soon. The cha cha move Thursday and Friday would argue sets up a better short opportunity in the name as you have removed the IV from earnings to now look out the next few months on put/spreads looking for a cooling off. *even sell side numbers I put little stock in almost all are below, and most significantly from the current price (one could argue thats bullish to rerate but I see this more like Birk that is behaving more like a squeeze than actual fundamentals, hence the wide divergence)
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$BSX ?? flat over the past 5 years. Can point to slowing growth from very elevated levels as farapulse and watchman have larger bases, some competition entering these spaces, glp1 on the margin to case loads over time, new inhibitors that could be coming from Lilly, novo, but at current $ sure seems like a lot is baked in at current prices. Innovative cardio franchise that has: Revenue has effectively doubled - predominately from farapulse and watchman (not m&a) Operating income 1.8B to 4.1B EBIT - $1.4B to 4.1B 3.5x on EPS (.69 to $2.40/share current) gross, operating, net, ebit, ebitda margins all expanded over that timeframe FCF more than 2x, opcf 2.5x The difference is you get to buy it at the same share price today, shares outstanding are virtually flat. Perhaps the defensive nature of medtech is sold in the aggressive risk on market we are in but growth still solid here with dividend and margin of safety versus other areas certainly seems worth a look, as is the rest of medtech as a place to hunt for value to wait until the market rotates back

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On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $11B
TSOH Investment Research 4 clicks

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks
CBOE · long

Cboe Global Markets INC

Cboe Global Markets trades near $232, with a roughly $24.3 billion market cap, net cash and a 16-17x forward P/E.

CBOE $29B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 8 clicks

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