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Monday, September 28, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

??? Two things can be true at the same time. In that you can have a slow down from weak international travel (administration) domestically, weak lower end consumer, glp, and inflation that is dragging down sales. And yet you can continue to invest in new store counts if the economics of your model are intact AND you have the balance sheet to continue to invest in your business. The competitors you cited besides macro have other issues impacting their ability to invest; PTLO has a serious balance sheet issue SG has an economic model problem... *turns out 18$ salads is a tough business*. Mcdonalds increased store openings in 2008 AND 2009 even as SSS growth was slowing every year 06-09....those investments worked out just fine because the model works. $SHAK SSS still going to print solidly positive for the year while most chains won't this year (and thats without the added store count). Shak has issues, all restaurants are tough and tough to scale and Rob and the cfo are far from Mcdonalds level of execution, but at 1x sales and a +20% restaurant margin model with 4m AUV theres a lot more room to the upside then the downside at current levels. I don't think they get to the dream target of 1500 stores, but that would be a 10x from here, whats the downside, at almost 1x current....30% maybe? I'll take that asymmetric set up. (Entered shares today)
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Interesting the $AMZN Supply Chain Services announcement has been glossed over by competitor share price action after the initial announcement hit. $UPS has been up virtually everyday for the past 2 weeks + even though they alongside the LTL carriers like $SAIA $XPO are probably the most exposed to competitive pressures or price pressures. Trucking is being supported by heavy admin crackdowns (that will help foster inflation later this year and into next year) and AI demand in areas like flatbed. But LTL and parcel demand is lagging and has relied heavily on price in recent years to compensate for higher costs and volumes....AMZN entrance should pressure both sides for these companies especially domestic players, much less for global routes

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Quick Value #332 - Gentherm (THRM)

Gentherm’s Oct. 1 Reverse Morris Trust with Modine adds commercial and off-highway operations, leaving THRM at 7.4x pro forma EBITDA with…

MOD $9.7B
Value Don't Lie 4 clicks

On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $11B
TSOH Investment Research 5 clicks

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $24B
Rebound Capital 7 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $29B
Hated Moats 8 clicks
CBOE · long

Cboe Global Markets INC

Cboe Global Markets trades near $232, with a roughly $24.3 billion market cap, net cash and a 16-17x forward P/E.

CBOE $29B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

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