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Sunday, September 27, 2026

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@MultiplesCap

Multiples Capital on X

A contrarian pick, for AI-like return in real estate. $STWD (Starwood Property Trust) has an asymmetric setup for a possible ~50% total return over the next 12 months If Treasury yields peaks and then declines back within the next year, then a combination of the current 13.3% div yield + rerating back to above its undepreciated book value ($19/share) results in close to 50% return for this best of breed lender. True Multi-Cylinder Engine: Unlike pure-play lenders exposed to a single-sector, $STWD operates across commercial lending, infrastructure, and owned real estate. Built-in Counter-Cyclical Hedge: Its Special Servicing and Investing arm actually benefits when market volatility rises, collecting servicing fees that insulate cash flows when traditional credit tightens. Office Risk Is Overblown: U.S. office makes up less than 8% of its total asset base, with the balance anchored in residential, industrial, and essential infrastructure. Unmatched Dividend Track Record: Management has maintained its quarterly dividend for over 17 yrs without a single cut through multiple rate cycles. Collecting a 13.3% cash yield while waiting for a yield-driven rerating could deliver an equity-like upside with institutional downside protection.
@MultiplesCap 1 click

Multiples Capital on X

A contrarian pick, for AI-like return in real estate. $STWD (Starwood Property Trust) has an asymmetric setup for a possible ~50% total return over the next 12 months If Treasury yields peaks and then declines back with the next year, then a combination of its current 13.3% div yield + rerating back to above its undepreciated book value ($19/share) results in close to 50% return for this best of breed lender. True Multi-Cylinder Engine: Unlike pure-play lenders exposed to a single-sector, $STWD operates across commercial lending, infrastructure, and owned real estate. Built-in Counter-Cyclical Hedge: Its Special Servicing and Investing arm actually benefits when market volatility rises, collecting servicing fees that insulate cash flows when traditional credit tightens. Office Risk Is Overblown: U.S. office makes up less than 8% of its total asset base, with the balance anchored in residential, industrial, and essential infrastructure. Unmatched Dividend Track Record: Management has maintained its quarterly dividend for over 17 yrs without a single cut through multiple rate cycles. Collecting a 13.3% cash yield while waiting for a yield-driven rerating could deliver an equity-like upside with institutional downside protection.
@MultiplesCap

Multiples Capital on X

A contrarian pick, for AI-like return in real estate. $STWD (Starwood Property Trust) has an asymmetric setup for a possible ~50% total return over the next 12 months If Treasury yields have peaked, then a combination of its current 13.3% div yield + rerating back to above its undepreciated book value ($19/share) results in close to 50% return for this best of breed lender. True Multi-Cylinder Engine: Unlike pure-play lenders exposed to a single-sector, $STWD operates across commercial lending, infrastructure, and owned real estate. Built-in Counter-Cyclical Hedge: Its Special Servicing and Investing arm actually benefits when market volatility rises, collecting servicing fees that insulate cash flows when traditional credit tightens. Office Risk Is Overblown: U.S. office makes up less than 8% of its total asset base, with the balance anchored in residential, industrial, and essential infrastructure. Unmatched Dividend Track Record: Management has maintained its quarterly dividend for over 17 yrs without a single cut through multiple rate cycles. Collecting a 13.3% cash yield while waiting for a yield-driven rerating could deliver an equity-like upside with institutional downside protection.

Investor Letters

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Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks

The Agents Revolt

Meta’s Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in two weeks, using AI agents to automate insurance shopping and erode customer inertia that…

META $1.8T
Net Interest 6 clicks
NEXPF · long

Nexi SpA

Nexi, continental Europe’s largest merchant acquirer, is presented as a long investment using normalized EPS and EBIT that exclude…

NEXPF $5.4B
Value Investors Club

Google’s AI Return on Investment

Alphabet’s $132 billion AI capex produced an estimated 49% post-tax incremental ROIC once only in-service assets are counted, versus a…

GOOGL $4.1T
Bristlemoon Capital 3 clicks

DoorDash

DoorDash positions itself as infrastructure for local commerce.

DASH $81B
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

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