Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Sunday, September 27, 2026

Back to today

From X

@MultiplesCap

Multiples Capital on X

A contrarian pick, for AI-like return in real estate. $STWD (Starwood Property Trust) has an asymmetric setup for a possible ~50% total return over the next 12 months If Treasury yields peaks and then declines back within the next year, then a combination of the current 13.3% div yield + rerating back to above its undepreciated book value ($19/share) results in close to 50% return for this best of breed lender. True Multi-Cylinder Engine: Unlike pure-play lenders exposed to a single-sector, $STWD operates across commercial lending, infrastructure, and owned real estate. Built-in Counter-Cyclical Hedge: Its Special Servicing and Investing arm actually benefits when market volatility rises, collecting servicing fees that insulate cash flows when traditional credit tightens. Office Risk Is Overblown: U.S. office makes up less than 8% of its total asset base, with the balance anchored in residential, industrial, and essential infrastructure. Unmatched Dividend Track Record: Management has maintained its quarterly dividend for over 17 yrs without a single cut through multiple rate cycles. Collecting a 13.3% cash yield while waiting for a yield-driven rerating could deliver an equity-like upside with institutional downside protection.
@MultiplesCap 1 click

Multiples Capital on X

A contrarian pick, for AI-like return in real estate. $STWD (Starwood Property Trust) has an asymmetric setup for a possible ~50% total return over the next 12 months If Treasury yields peaks and then declines back with the next year, then a combination of its current 13.3% div yield + rerating back to above its undepreciated book value ($19/share) results in close to 50% return for this best of breed lender. True Multi-Cylinder Engine: Unlike pure-play lenders exposed to a single-sector, $STWD operates across commercial lending, infrastructure, and owned real estate. Built-in Counter-Cyclical Hedge: Its Special Servicing and Investing arm actually benefits when market volatility rises, collecting servicing fees that insulate cash flows when traditional credit tightens. Office Risk Is Overblown: U.S. office makes up less than 8% of its total asset base, with the balance anchored in residential, industrial, and essential infrastructure. Unmatched Dividend Track Record: Management has maintained its quarterly dividend for over 17 yrs without a single cut through multiple rate cycles. Collecting a 13.3% cash yield while waiting for a yield-driven rerating could deliver an equity-like upside with institutional downside protection.
@MultiplesCap

Multiples Capital on X

A contrarian pick, for AI-like return in real estate. $STWD (Starwood Property Trust) has an asymmetric setup for a possible ~50% total return over the next 12 months If Treasury yields have peaked, then a combination of its current 13.3% div yield + rerating back to above its undepreciated book value ($19/share) results in close to 50% return for this best of breed lender. True Multi-Cylinder Engine: Unlike pure-play lenders exposed to a single-sector, $STWD operates across commercial lending, infrastructure, and owned real estate. Built-in Counter-Cyclical Hedge: Its Special Servicing and Investing arm actually benefits when market volatility rises, collecting servicing fees that insulate cash flows when traditional credit tightens. Office Risk Is Overblown: U.S. office makes up less than 8% of its total asset base, with the balance anchored in residential, industrial, and essential infrastructure. Unmatched Dividend Track Record: Management has maintained its quarterly dividend for over 17 yrs without a single cut through multiple rate cycles. Collecting a 13.3% cash yield while waiting for a yield-driven rerating could deliver an equity-like upside with institutional downside protection.

Investor Letters

All letters

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks

The Agents Revolt

Meta’s Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in two weeks, using AI agents to automate insurance shopping and erode customer inertia that…

META $1.8T
Net Interest 6 clicks
KRYS · short

Krystal Biotech INC

Krystal Biotech is a profitable commercial-stage biotech with an $8.7 billion enterprise value and one FDA-approved topical gene therapy,…

KRYS $10B
Value Investors Club

Roblox: Accepting Uncertainty

Roblox reached 144 million DAUs and 123.9 billion engagement hours by 2025, but Q3 FY26 bookings are set to fall mid-teens, renewing calls…

RBLX $30B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $6.7B
The Oak Bloke 13 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

110 publications

Newsletters 93

YouTube 4

Blogs 12

Seeking Alpha 42 of 199

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

72 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

189 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.