Saturday, September 26, 2026

Abridged - Capital Cycle IQ & Forensic Files on the Big 5 Hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, ORCL, META, GOOG)

Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, Meta and Alphabet face another two years of record AI data-center investment amid $3 trillion in commitments, leases, guarantees and potential off-balance-sheet…

MSFT $3.8TAMZN $2.7T

Cassandra Unchained Sep 26 9 clicks

Sep 26 HONA $49B

New Buy : Honeywell Aerospace $HONA

D Invests 13 clicks

Sep 26 VBNK $720M

VersaBank: The Bank Behind the Bank – How a Canadian Branchless Pioneer Wants to Make Asset-Backed Securities Obsolete

Substack von Philipp 5 clicks

From X

@valuedontlie Sep 26

Colin King on X

To $FOUR credit, they've already been buying back lots of stock and recently killed the Up-C structure (which are terrible) https://t.co/0kRHGBybWV https://t.co/BBTKz873dC

@Fierce__beast Sep 26

Fierce_beast on X

@brianjrobben I mention this possibility as a reason for why it sold down too. I don't think 8% returns are bad for $MCD, but yea, it's not obviously good here. At the same time i'm a bit torn given i am short many resturants this idea maybe is a bit of an idea to balance my book a bit.

@AltayCapital Sep 26 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.

@Fierce__beast Sep 26 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

@theotheraharon But i'm looking for ideas that have been specifically impacted by the degrossing event. Not sure $MXCT or $RARE are correlated to that. The idea is find stocks that are irrationally selling off or getting bid due to the degrossing, then pick your spots from the list you find.

@Fierce__beast Sep 26

Fierce_beast on X

@SolutionOrganic There are other reasons, beyond the return to buy it. But my base case is closer to 8% here. But there are reasons for instance that if inflation rise or rates increase, i think bonds would suffer more than $MCD and $otis at this valuation if you look out 1 year

@Fierce__beast Sep 26

Fierce_beast on X

I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.

@Fierce__beast Sep 26 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

@JJNews002 bought a little of it too $ABVX

@Fierce__beast Sep 26 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

What are people buying and selling in this apparent biotech degrossing phase? I am looking given the irrationality of the situation and the temporary opportunities it may present on both sides of the ledger. $XBI recent returns seem driven by two stocks $MRNA and $TWST. I shorted small size some $CDNA, $MRVI. Long $ACAD, $UTHR and $CELC. Are these completely idiotic ideas?

Investor Letters

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GitLab: Positioned To Benefit From Software Development Explosion

GitLab's Q2 FY2027 beat and raised guidance reflect large deals, paid consumption growth and AI demand, while valuation rests on revenue…

GTLB $8.2B

Research and Value Sep 26 3 clicks

Updates

FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.

FGPR $254MPRTH $642M

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter Sep 25 12 clicks

The Enron-Era Tricks Are Back in AI: How These Companies Are Hiding Their Debt | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman says AI companies are reviving Enron-era off-balance-sheet and circular financing, alongside concerns around Oracle and Blue…

META $1.8TORCL $419B

Steve Eisman Sep 25 5 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B

Hated Moats Sep 25 7 clicks

The Agents Revolt

Meta’s Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in two weeks, using AI agents to automate insurance shopping and erode customer inertia that…

META $1.8T

Net Interest Sep 25 6 clicks

Oklo: Shares Have Plunged, But I'm Still Bearish

Oklo shares have fallen 77% since October 2025 as commercialization slips beyond 2027, revenue estimates fall and dilution continues.

OKLO $6.7B

Ian Bezek Sep 25 5 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/25/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ralph Lauren’s $1 billion distribution pullback, Peloton’s $2,195 foldable treadmill and $800 million…

RL $21BPTON $2.2B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 25 5 clicks

IonQ: Nvidia QPU Catalyst Isn't Enough

IonQ's Q2 2026 revenue rose 287% to $80.1 million, but durability hinges on its $485 million RPO and enterprise adoption for production AI…

IONQ $18B

Deep Value Investing Sep 25 2 clicks

Single Stock Spotlight #15: Rocket Companies (RKT)

Rocket Companies combines Redfin, Rocket Mortgage and Mr. Cooper into an end-to-end homeownership platform, adding mortgage servicing fees…

RKT $33B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Sep 25 6 clicks

Eckert & Ziegler: The Pick-and-Shovel Supplier of the Radiopharma Boom – Finally at a Fair Price

Eckert & Ziegler trades near €12, about 14 times expected earnings, as its isotope supply business expands with radiopharma demand despite…

NVS $271B

Substack von Philipp Sep 25 3 clicks

TYL · long

Tyler Technologies INC

Tyler Technologies, TYL, is positioned as a resilient govtech software provider if AI disrupts enterprise SaaS.

TYL $14B

Value Investors Club Jun 16

Sangamo Bankruptcy (SGMOQ)

Sangamo Therapeutics’ Chapter 11 asset sales leave common equity tied to $100 million in PTC Fabry therapy approval milestones and a…

SGMO $61M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Sep 2 6 clicks

Amazon $AMZN: The Company That Became Impossible to Ignore — and Finally Possible to Model

Amazon reported $200.6 billion in quarterly revenue and $27.5 billion in operating income as AWS grew 36.7% and advertising 26%, making its…

AMZN $2.7T

Substack von Philipp Sep 2 2 clicks

Reddit: Rapid Earnings Growth With Room For An AI Expansion

Reddit's advertising automation, proprietary data and Reddit Max are driving rapid revenue growth and margin expansion, while AI licensing…

RDDT $28B

Krzysztof Bogdanski Sep 2 4 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LI

Nvidia’s Q2 2027 triple-digit growth and above-consensus FY28 outlook reinforce AI infrastructure spending, while Symbotic’s new automation…

NVDA $5.5TSYM $26B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 2

Credo's Post-Earnings Selloff Creates Strong Buying Opportunity (Review)

Credo Technology's 40% pullback follows Q1 despite its shift from copper AECs to optical connectivity, with 1.6T products and OmniConnect…

CRDO $40B

Danil Sereda Sep 2

An ATM that starts to spit out cash

Andrada Mining’s Uis ore sorter targets higher tin grades and lower unit costs after FY26 operating cash flow reached £4.7 million, but…

ATMTF $196M

The Oak Bloke Sep 2 7 clicks

Tectonic Therapeutic: Competitor Data Strengthens The TX45 Bull Case

Tectonic Therapeutic's TX45 CpcPH-HFpEF program gains support from Merck's CADENCE data; Phase 1b hemodynamics and cash through Q1 2029 set…

TECX $450M

Equity Eagle Sep 2 2 clicks

EVC Update

EVC reported a solid second quarter and outlook.

EVC $682M

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter Sep 1 15 clicks

$LMB: Limbach missed the data center boom. Is that the opportunity? | 1 Main Capital

Limbach's EBITDA fell 30% as organic revenue declined, but 1 Main Capital calls the weakness temporary and views CYMCOR as its first…

LMB $593M

Yet Another Value Podcast Sep 1 9 clicks

Saturday, September 26, 2026

Colin King on X

Fierce_beast on X

AltayCap on X

Fierce_beast on X

Fierce_beast on X

Fierce_beast on X

Fierce_beast on X

Fierce_beast on X

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