Saturday, September 26, 2026

Abridged - Capital Cycle IQ & Forensic Files on the Big 5 Hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, ORCL, META, GOOG)

Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, Meta and Alphabet face another two years of record AI data-center investment amid $3 trillion in commitments, leases, guarantees and potential off-balance-sheet…

MSFT $3.8TAMZN $2.7T

Cassandra Unchained Sep 26 10 clicks

Sep 26 HONA $49B

New Buy : Honeywell Aerospace $HONA

D Invests 13 clicks

Sep 26 VBNK $722M

VersaBank: The Bank Behind the Bank – How a Canadian Branchless Pioneer Wants to Make Asset-Backed Securities Obsolete

Substack von Philipp 7 clicks

From X

@valuedontlie Sep 26

Colin King on X

To $FOUR credit, they've already been buying back lots of stock and recently killed the Up-C structure (which are terrible) https://t.co/0kRHGBybWV https://t.co/BBTKz873dC

@Fierce__beast Sep 26 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

@brianjrobben I mention this possibility as a reason for why it sold down too. I don't think 8% returns are bad for $MCD, but yea, it's not obviously good here. At the same time i'm a bit torn given i am short many resturants this idea maybe is a bit of an idea to balance my book a bit.

@AltayCapital Sep 26 4 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.

@Fierce__beast Sep 26 2 clicks

Fierce_beast on X

@theotheraharon But i'm looking for ideas that have been specifically impacted by the degrossing event. Not sure $MXCT or $RARE are correlated to that. The idea is find stocks that are irrationally selling off or getting bid due to the degrossing, then pick your spots from the list you find.

@Fierce__beast Sep 26 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

@SolutionOrganic There are other reasons, beyond the return to buy it. But my base case is closer to 8% here. But there are reasons for instance that if inflation rise or rates increase, i think bonds would suffer more than $MCD and $otis at this valuation if you look out 1 year

@Fierce__beast Sep 26

Fierce_beast on X

I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.

@Fierce__beast Sep 26 3 clicks

Fierce_beast on X

@JJNews002 bought a little of it too $ABVX

@Fierce__beast Sep 26 2 clicks

Fierce_beast on X

What are people buying and selling in this apparent biotech degrossing phase? I am looking given the irrationality of the situation and the temporary opportunities it may present on both sides of the ledger. $XBI recent returns seem driven by two stocks $MRNA and $TWST. I shorted small size some $CDNA, $MRVI. Long $ACAD, $UTHR and $CELC. Are these completely idiotic ideas?

Investor Letters

All letters

GitLab: Positioned To Benefit From Software Development Explosion

GitLab's Q2 FY2027 beat and raised guidance reflect large deals, paid consumption growth and AI demand, while valuation rests on revenue…

GTLB $8.6B

Research and Value Sep 26 3 clicks

Updates

FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.

FGPR $253MPRTH $642M

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter Sep 25 13 clicks

The Enron-Era Tricks Are Back in AI: How These Companies Are Hiding Their Debt | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman says AI companies are reviving Enron-era off-balance-sheet and circular financing, alongside concerns around Oracle and Blue…

META $1.9TORCL $439B

Steve Eisman Sep 25 6 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $29B

Hated Moats Sep 25 8 clicks

The Agents Revolt

Meta’s Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in two weeks, using AI agents to automate insurance shopping and erode customer inertia that…

META $1.9T

Net Interest Sep 25 7 clicks

Oklo: Shares Have Plunged, But I'm Still Bearish

Oklo shares have fallen 77% since October 2025 as commercialization slips beyond 2027, revenue estimates fall and dilution continues.

OKLO $7.2B

Ian Bezek Sep 25 5 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/25/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ralph Lauren’s $1 billion distribution pullback, Peloton’s $2,195 foldable treadmill and $800 million…

RL $22BPTON $2.2B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 25 6 clicks

IonQ: Nvidia QPU Catalyst Isn't Enough

IonQ's Q2 2026 revenue rose 287% to $80.1 million, but durability hinges on its $485 million RPO and enterprise adoption for production AI…

IONQ $17B

Deep Value Investing Sep 25 2 clicks

Single Stock Spotlight #15: Rocket Companies (RKT)

Rocket Companies combines Redfin, Rocket Mortgage and Mr. Cooper into an end-to-end homeownership platform, adding mortgage servicing fees…

RKT $33B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Sep 25 7 clicks

Eckert & Ziegler: The Pick-and-Shovel Supplier of the Radiopharma Boom – Finally at a Fair Price

Eckert & Ziegler trades near €12, about 14 times expected earnings, as its isotope supply business expands with radiopharma demand despite…

NVS $268B

Substack von Philipp Sep 25 4 clicks

BCO · long

Brinks CO

Brink’s $6.6 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of NCR Atleos underpins the long case, citing strategic and financial rationale.

BCO $4.2B

Value Investors Club May 8 1 click

Global Spirits: Q2 Earnings Update

Diageo and Campari remain preferred as spirits sales face destocking, elevated inventories and weak guidance, while Campari increases…

DEO $47B

Sector Stories Sep 4

Lagging Edge will have a Permanent Glut

Texas Instruments faces a permanent lagging-edge chip glut as Chinese capacity floods auto and industrial markets, weakening pricing and…

TXN $268B

Fabricated Knowledge Sep 4

American Biltrite - OTC:ABLT

American Biltrite carries $41 million of asbestos and environmental liabilities and $28 million of debt, leaving property sales, cost cuts…

ABLT $0M

Obscure Stocks Sep 3

Product-Market Fit in 5G ORAN Radios... Equity Market Rerate to Come? ($AMPG)

Amplitech's bull case rests on $118 million in 5G Open RAN LOIs, 125% projected revenue growth and a 1x EV/sales valuation.

AMPG $91M

Multibagger Monitor Aug 28 11 clicks

The Announcement That Changes Everything

China Yuchai’s potential MGP IPO could separate its data-center and genset arm, with employee incentives tied to a listing and a proposed…

CYD $1.2B

Maius Partners Aug 26 4 clicks

Crane Co.

Crane Co. sells sole-source aerospace and process-control components, with 40% aftermarket revenue and margin expansion following its 2023…

CR $12B

Kairos Research Aug 26 1 click

GAMCO Investors, Inc. - GAMI

GAMCO Investors trades OTC at a $550 million market cap, with $150 million in excess cash and a 5.2-5.7x operating-income valuation despite…

GAMI $537M

Exploring with Alluvial Capital Aug 21 1 click

RH - the Universe Intervenes?

RH’s debt-funded luxury expansion faces weakening demand, deeper member discounts and a balance sheet strained by $2.4 billion of net debt.

RH $2.3B

Brevarthan Research Aug 20

Acuren Q2 Earnings review

Acuren's Q2 revenue rose 1.5% to $313.9 million before its NV5 merger; post-close selling drove TIC down 21% as management targets $20…

TIC $1.9B

Kairos Research Aug 19 2 clicks

Saturday, September 26, 2026

Colin King on X

Fierce_beast on X

AltayCap on X

Fierce_beast on X

Fierce_beast on X

Fierce_beast on X

Fierce_beast on X

Fierce_beast on X

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