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Saturday, September 26, 2026

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@AltayCapital 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.

Investor Letters

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Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks

The Agents Revolt

Meta’s Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in two weeks, using AI agents to automate insurance shopping and erode customer inertia that…

META $1.8T
Net Interest 6 clicks
GPK · long

Graphic Packaging Holding CO

Graphic Packaging (GPK) is pitched as a long with $22 fair value, implying roughly 100% upside, based on its low-cost paper-based packaging…

GPK $2.7B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. XLVIII

Palantir’s Q2 revenue beat, Sony’s physical-media exit and Diamondback’s Permian gas constraints frame a roundup on AI adoption, oil prices…

PLTR $455BSONY $139B
Monte Independent Investment Research

Lumentum Q4 FY26 Earnings

Lumentum’s CW lasers offer wider mode-hop-free operating ranges for co-packaged optics, supporting premium pricing and 80–90%…

LITE $94B
Irrational Analysis

Trading Post August 11, 2026

Molina Healthcare was increased at $198 to a full position, with political-season benefits supporting the long-term thesis.

MOH $9.9B
Cassandra Unchained

Sea Limited Earnings Update: A quick look

Sea Limited reported Q2 2026 revenue of $7.8 billion, up 48%, as Shopee, Monee and Garena lifted adjusted EBITDA to $917 million.

SE $60B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets

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