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Wednesday, September 16, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$BFLY the Midjourney ultrasound full body announcement is a highly entertaining read. Sadly I cannot back into what the "ultrasound on a chip" pricing is and what 50,000 units * 40 chips would equate to at Midjourneys target opening in 2031 (as a potential full revenue opportunity). But I do know there are limitations in what ultrasound can scan for versus MRI/CT - their are advantageous for both and why they are used for different imaging needs (pregnancy, organ, blood flow for ultrasound v. skeletal, brain ct) ...So the companies promotion of using ultrasound pools to replace CT is either misleading or an outright lie, it is simply not possible. The story gets worse, they plan on opening spas, with water pools to conduct their scanning. Only doing body composition and no actual medical diagnosis scans to open in SF hopefully in 2027...the maintenance costs will be significant as they have to treat the water before each usage and limits throughput. Plus the renderings imply significant capX that will need to be recouped at some point (either throughput or higher prices than they are leading on). So no idea the propensity of vc funded AI companies to spend irrationally and without regard for economics so perhaps BFLY will be a beneficiary here (seems difficult at their current valuation and the likelihood of Midjourney ever scaling their operation but who knows....) the free spending train rolls on for now. I encourage someone to watch the videos put out by Midjourney its truly something......
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Odd two day movement in $KMX after earnings... Agree with the day 1 action - a stock that came into the report on a blistering run, and while the co. reported "improved" results, there are significant challenges still in front of them. Most of the improvement is driven by a dramatic lowering of sale prices to increase sales (gross profit dollars still lower). And that is a lever that will likely remain a permanence as they try and respond to efforts from $CVNA and others. I will credit them on lowering expenses as well, likely low hanging fruit and moves to reduce ("automate") reconditioning again following the caravan playbook of leaving cars closer to as returned. issues on loans remains in a market that is significantly challenged and does not appear on the verge of improving any time soon. The cha cha move Thursday and Friday would argue sets up a better short opportunity in the name as you have removed the IV from earnings to now look out the next few months on put/spreads looking for a cooling off. *even sell side numbers I put little stock in almost all are below, and most significantly from the current price (one could argue thats bullish to rerate but I see this more like Birk that is behaving more like a squeeze than actual fundamentals, hence the wide divergence)
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$BSX ?? flat over the past 5 years. Can point to slowing growth from very elevated levels as farapulse and watchman have larger bases, some competition entering these spaces, glp1 on the margin to case loads over time, new inhibitors that could be coming from Lilly, novo, but at current $ sure seems like a lot is baked in at current prices. Innovative cardio franchise that has: Revenue has effectively doubled - predominately from farapulse and watchman (not m&a) Operating income 1.8B to 4.1B EBIT - $1.4B to 4.1B 3.5x on EPS (.69 to $2.40/share current) gross, operating, net, ebit, ebitda margins all expanded over that timeframe FCF more than 2x, opcf 2.5x The difference is you get to buy it at the same share price today, shares outstanding are virtually flat. Perhaps the defensive nature of medtech is sold in the aggressive risk on market we are in but growth still solid here with dividend and margin of safety versus other areas certainly seems worth a look, as is the rest of medtech as a place to hunt for value to wait until the market rotates back
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Pretty incredible market sells off software again aggressively at the same time ramping up public private credit exposed names like $MFC, $ARES, $FG (CEO left suddenly yesterday) all because they ride alongside the aggressive buying in money center banks in financial etc flows ($JPM up 14% in June). Seems like there needs to be some dispersion in public private credit and software - one side at current prices has to be wrong, guessing private credit lower is how the dispersion resolves itself

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Adobe 3Q26 Update

Adobe’s fiscal 3Q26 revenue grew 13%, while ARR growth slowed to 9.3% excluding Semrush.

ADBE $93B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Alarm.com: False Alarm?

Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether…

ALRM $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1

Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.

GENI $1.6B
Sylence Capital 2 clicks

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 3 clicks

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $72B
Net Interest 1 click

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