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Monday, September 14, 2026

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@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$BSP lockup comes right at the end of the year....might want to file that date away, and go read the S1. Difficult to find a more flawed business model and aggregios valuation then this. It is Upland reincarnated and perhaps Valeant if they start getting dodgy on their receivables as financing starts drying up. BSP business is simply a game of removing almost all costs of broken, zombie software companies (bring r&d to near zero, remove a bulk of the employees, jack the price to any residual customers, report improved metrics, do not report the metrics you do not want to show (stopped reporting NRR, other metrics post IPO). An Italian based rollup of a collection of 2012 point solutions (Vimeo, Brightcove, Eventbrite, AOL (yes that AOL), and a bunch of others that were failed investments on their own right and in decline. Very little in shared synergies. The cadence of deals and size of deals has been dramatically increasing since 2003 (as you would expect). sub 300m in 2023, 800m in 2024, 2B in 2025, and already at 4B for 2026. This law of large numbers will continue to have to scale to continue to be able to show the financial wizardly of improved adjusted profits. Because as the cohorts exhaust the initial boost from price increases and cost cuts the businesses start more aggressively shedding their customer base (increasing the melt of the ice cube), so before these metrics infect their financials they need new deals to over run the melt (not a coincidence deal flow is faster and bigger). And thats the game, the equity price (and future dilution a certainty) (as they are around 6-7B net debt once they close their recent acquisition, this is post the ipo raise too). Once/if the story, law of numbers cannot run anymore to the right with financing, the gig will be up. Plenty of prior versions of this exact model as predecessors just go look at Upland software $UPLD. Won't end well but weird float dynamics with the A shares, IPO, lockup (12/28) and the aggressiveness of software/semi currently that is squeezing lots of more obvious AI disrupted software vendors, so its obvious where their ends up ultimately but might be treacherous on its path there, certainly tough until the float increases to short. Should be fun to watch, and an opportunity once liquidity opens up
@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

Workiva $WK came through our monitor when Meditation Capital @timothyhliu5 ran a deep dive on it. The Fund has been buying application software at 2–3x sales after 105 expert calls, arguing infrastructure and cybersecurity have already repriced as AI winners while application names have not. It describes Workiva as the near-monopoly platform for SEC reporting: 95% of the Fortune 100, 89% of the S&P 500, an estimated ~50% of US filers and ~85% of filer market capitalization.

Investor Letters

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Alarm.com: False Alarm?

Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether…

ALRM $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 2 clicks

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $74B
Net Interest 1 click
NCNO · long

Ncino INC

NCino is a commercial-lending system of record for banks and credit unions, trading at roughly 3x enterprise value to sales.

NCNO $2.1B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Bye the Index

Nasdaq’s QQQ amassed $456 billion through aggressive marketing, turning index licensing into a larger earnings source than trading, data…

NDAQ $51B
Net Interest

April Earnings Update

Crocs raised 2026 EPS guidance to $13.20-$13.75 and bought back $73.6 million of stock, while Huntsman, Pitney Bowes and Alpha…

CROX $5.9BPBI $2.4B
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter

PayPal tries again (and again)

Stripe’s startup-focused product sprawl contrasts with Adyen’s enterprise restraint; despite 20% more payment volume and faster growth,…

PYPL $45B
scuttleblurb

Floor & Decor: 1Q26 Business Update

Floor & Decor cut 2026 guidance after 1Q same-store sales fell 3.7%, while shrinking new-store formats, cutting comparable-store SG&A and…

FND $5B
Speedwell Research

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