AI Terminator Fears Grow & Rates Breach 4.9% | The Weekly Wrap
Ten-year Treasury yields breach 4.9% as Steve Eisman discusses AI fears, OpenAI's price cut, Oracle's 30% revenue growth and Tesla's robotaxi setback.
Friday, September 11, 2026
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catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
Voss Capital on X
The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken). https://t.co/zxTIFVgn1s
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 ALM $4.2BJXN $8.8B
- Akre Capital Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMT $82BMA $487B
- Bristlemoon Capital Q3 2026 SNDK $276B
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.6B
- Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 KLAC $243BMCK $104B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 9301 $3.3B
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.5B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.6B
The Five Deals That Made Apollo
Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…
TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)
TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com…
Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) Stock Rating: Upgrade To Accumulate After Q3 FY10/26 Earnings - Accumulation Zone And Stop Inside
Applied Materials reported Q3 revenue of $9.1 billion, up 25%, and $2.3 billion in free cash flow as AMAT fell roughly 40% from its June…
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) Stock Rating: Accumulate - Initiating Coverage
Joby Aviation is initiated at Accumulate after booking $116m of trailing revenue, forming a Toyota manufacturing venture and agreeing to…
Qualcomm Vs. Marvell: The Better AI Business Is The Worse Stock
Qualcomm offers more valuation cushion than Marvell despite Marvell’s stronger AI revenue, as its Amazon partnership supports data-center…
Delta Analyst 
One of the Best Business Models in the World Just Went on Sale
AppLovin trades at 18 times EBITDA after a 57% drop, despite 84% EBITDA margins, rapid growth and a machine-learning advertising platform.
The Williams Companies: A Tough Competitor Tackles The Northeast
Williams Companies faces a revoked Northeast pipeline permit while pursuing growth through Momentum Midstream, Gulf export access and…
Long Player 
TransDigm is still in it for the money
TransDigm’s sole-source aerospace parts generate roughly 70% aftermarket margins, with 90% of revenue tied to owned IP and 80% from…
Gaming And Leisure Properties: Guilty By Association With VICI
Gaming and Leisure Properties raised AFFO guidance and dividends after Q2, trading at 10.2 times forward AFFO with an 80% payout ratio and…
Quick Value #330 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows.
[scuttleslops] UNP-NSC merger, HEI, NVDA, AVGO, DG, DLTR
Union Pacific’s $85 billion Norfolk Southern merger pitch centers on a coast-to-coast rail network that cuts interchange delays and wins…
Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY1/27 Earnings
Dell’s Q2 revenue rose 57.7% to $47.0 billion and RPO tripled to $132 billion, but its stock trades at 32 times unlevered pretax free cash…
Dyne Therapeutics Remains A Buy Even As Novartis Trial Failure Hits DM1 Class
Dyne Therapeutics fell 16% after Novartis’ HARBOR failure raised doubts that RNA-targeting biomarker gains translate into functional…
FTAI · long Ftai Aviation LTD
FTAI Aviation, valued near $23 billion at roughly $226 per share, is presented as a long investment.
Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis
Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…
Qualcomm: Data Center Revenue To Reach $15 Billion In 3 Years
Qualcomm targets $15 billion of data-center revenue by FY2029 through AI accelerators, custom ASICs, Arm server CPUs and hyperscaler wins.
Khaveen Investments 
P&C Stocks Worth Owning: The AI Hedge with Ryan Tunis | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 74
Ryan Tunis discusses P&C insurers, favoring Travelers over Chubb in a soft commercial market and calling AIG a near-book-value self-help…
Pinterest: Underlying Growth Remains Stronger Than The Market Thinks
Pinterest’s Q2 showed reaccelerating North American growth, while weaker international trends, AI-related engagement risks and elevated…
Richard Durant 2 clicksA quick update on Deep Dives
MBI Deep Dives will update prior company analyses through year-end, beginning with Uber, while deferring new work on Micron and S&P Global.
Celsius: The Pepsi Put
Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…
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