Thursday, September 3, 2026

A Busted Businesses or a Cyclical Bottom?

Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the category has reached a cyclical bottom.

SMPL $848MBRBR $1B

The Value Road Sep 2 12 clicks

Sep 1 EVC $727M

EVC Update

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 15 clicks

Sep 1 LMB $623M

$LMB: Limbach missed the data center boom. Is that the opportunity? | 1 Main Capital

Yet Another Value Podcast 9 clicks

From X

@irbezek Jul 15 1 click

Ian Bezek on X

@b20220803 @OddStats $soxl dropped 90% during the 2024-25 dip. This one will be worse.

@natstewart5 Jul 15 1 click

Nat Stewart on X

Just had lunch with my son at Wendy's $WEN in Lee, NH. He had the Baconator, I had the spicy chicken sandwich. Both of us thought it was pretty darn good. Ample amount of chicken, decent bun, reasonably spicy. We both liked the fries as well. Restaurant was clean, service was quick.

@BlueDuckCap Jul 15

BDC on X

$toi https://t.co/9pfaLXskXk

@BrokenMoats Jul 15

Broken Moats on X

Someone really going to need to explain how Stripe buying $PYPL is also bullish for $XYZ? Venmo now gets unlimited funding, a direct consumer facing application for the biggest player in payments, and the optionality of their checkout/pos business if they want to scale and invest aggressively their for that (like pushing their stable coin initiative that would be well received by retailers). Would think the correct framework for this deal is it is net negative the entire payment space as a new entrant has new pathways to compete and disrupt ($TOST, $STNE $FOUR etc included)

@mavix_leon Jul 15 1 click

mavix on X

Evolution $EVO has agreed a GBP 4.75 million settlement with the UK Gambling Commission, concluding the licence review initiated in December 2024. The settlement primarily relates to the finding that Evolution game content was available via two operators on six websites. https://t.co/Q2pVlKKgjd

@LaughingH20Cap Jul 14 1 click

Laughing Water Capital on X

@thecontracap also worth noting that if $ANAB loses, maybe the stock goes down but future cash flows do not. Plan B is prob just sell the royalty stream, which is why the former CFO of $RPRX was added to the BOD 4 months ago. Heads win a ton. Tails you don't lose (if you can handle the vol)

@LaughingH20Cap Jul 14 1 click

Laughing Water Capital on X

@thecontracap agree ex-CEO statements are not +. However, statements from the GSK manager responsible for managing the $ANAB collaboration make it clear he thought GSK was in violation of the agreement. Not good for either side. Think sanctity of contract law has to come above all else though

@LaughingH20Cap Jul 14 2 clicks

Laughing Water Capital on X

@thecontracap 2/x)on the other hand, if $ANAB's position is upheld, it sucks for GSK, but contract law as a whole in DE continues to successfully govern the land as it has for centuries prior. Not clear to me that AI can consider the gravity of dismantling all of DE contract law...

MDA Space: Houston, We Have a New Position

MDA Space is added to the Aurelion Index after hiring engineers, signing large contracts and expanding facilities; the thesis cites…

MDA $5.2B

Aurelion Research Sep 1 5 clicks

Cleveland-Cliffs: 2027 Could Be A Very Big Year

Cleveland-Cliffs' 2027 upside depends on contract resets and Stelco earnings, while management directs free cash flow to deleveraging…

CLF $6.9B

The Bullionaire Sep 1 1 click

[WAY – Waystar] Healthcare is a very complicated invoice

Waystar sells revenue-cycle software for a US claims process where roughly 18% of submitted claims are initially denied and healthcare…

WAY $4.9B

scuttleblurb Aug 31 5 clicks

Ultragenyx ($RARE): A Catalyst-Driven Thesis With Asymmetric Upside

Ultragenyx targets $730-760 million of 2026 revenue after GENGLYCOS approval, with UX111’s FDA decision and GTX-102 Phase 3 data due in…

RARE $1.4B

Hated Moats Aug 30

FTRE 2026-08-30

Fortrea Holdings: The Turnaround Is Showing Up In Earnings Before Revenue

Fortrea’s adjusted EBITDA rose 24% in H1 as cost cuts outpaced a 3.4% revenue decline, while new business awards increased 19%.

FTRE $1.9B

Manimala Misra Aug 30 2 clicks

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…

UWMC $2BCCOI $476M

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 27 13 clicks

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…

VRRM $536M

The Oak Bloke Aug 27 6 clicks

BHVN 2026-08-27

Biohaven: Sale Of Opakalim Rights To SK Biopharmaceuticals Makes Sense On Many Levels

Biohaven’s $795 million global opakalim licensing deal with SK Biopharmaceuticals boosts cash, lowers R&D spending and extends its funding…

BHVN $2.1B

Edmund Ingham Aug 27 1 click

Miami International Holdings (MIAX)

Miami International Holdings, the No. 4 options exchange with 17% share, trades at 12x forward EBITDA despite 35% revenue growth, 54%…

MIAX $3.8B

Sylence Capital Aug 27 1 click

Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade

Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.

PRGS $1.9B

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 27 3 clicks

ENS · short

Enersys

EnerSys faces a short thesis as data-center and warehouse vehicle customers shift from lead-acid batteries to lithium-ion.

ENS $6.5B

Value Investors Club Jun 5

US-Canada Tariffs: Finding Investment Opportunities

US-Canada tariffs impose 50% duties on $20 billion of Canadian goods, lifting US steel makers while pressuring Canadian exporters and…

ASTL $451M

Aurelion Research Aug 24

NRIX 2026-08-24

Nurix Therapeutics: Roche Has Changed The Economics Of The Bull Case

Nurix Therapeutics gained $700 million upfront from Roche, a 50% U.S. profit share and Roche-funded global bexobrutideg development,…

NRIX $2.7B

Equity Eagle Aug 24 3 clicks

Planet Fitness: The $10 Gym That Grew Into a Franchise Machine

Planet Fitness runs 2,930 clubs and 21.5 million memberships through an asset-light franchise model funded by $15 monthly dues, royalties…

PLNT $3.2B

Open Insights Aug 23

$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners

El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…

ELALF $3.2B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 20 12 clicks

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…

CCC $3.9B

scuttleblurb Aug 20 17 clicks

Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?

Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…

VRRM $536M

The Oak Bloke Aug 20 13 clicks

SA 2026-08-20

Seabridge Gold: Fairly Valued Now But Big Upside

Seabridge Gold's KSM gold-copper project could re-rate on a joint venture, 2027 feasibility study and infrastructure progress, with gold…

SA $3.5B

Redfern Research Aug 20

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $6.5B

The Oak Bloke Aug 19 13 clicks

PGY 2026-08-19

Pagaya Technologies: A Fast-Growing Industry Disruptor Trading At A P/E Of 6.6x

Pagaya Technologies reported Q2 2026 network volume of $3.54 billion, 19% revenue growth and 99% adjusted net-income growth, while trading…

PGY $1.6B

Akim Guerreiro Aug 19

Thursday, September 3, 2026

Ian Bezek on X

Nat Stewart on X

BDC on X

Broken Moats on X

mavix on X

Laughing Water Capital on X

Laughing Water Capital on X

Laughing Water Capital on X

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