Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Thursday, August 27, 2026
From X
Chris Camillo on X
@LownTrevor if you believe that’s the consensus then $TTWO not for you
Chris Camillo on X
Please let $TTWO open flat tomorrow because tonight’s GTA VI reaction is “priced in” test me
Timyan Bank Alert on X
Mutual Federal Bancorp, $MFDB Announces Adoption of Plan of Conversion and Reorganization to Undertake Second Step ... https://t.co/BkyVGHPxWU
Chris Camillo on X
We currently have only one real datapoint to work off from today’s gameplay reveal: depth of player interest in the gameplay. The better the gameplay, the greater the long-term monetization opportunity for $TTWO. That’s the variable I don’t think is priced in yet, and it’s what gives this trade meaningful upside and downside.
Chris Camillo on X
Ran dozens of social arb probability scenarios for how the world would react to today’s GTA VI gameplay reveal. This is playing out like a top 5% outcome. Did not expect this. Feels like the market came into today anchored to last week’s hacker leaks and primed for disappointment. It may take a minute to process what just happened. $TTWO
Maj Soueidan on X
What's the one stock you hope falls due to a "blip" quarter that is likely temporary due to unusual circumstances or investor misinterpretation? Two of my wishes already came true with $SIF and $KLNG. Could throw $FSI into the mix. Next on this early Christmas wish list? $PPIH
Maj Soueidan on X
@StableBread Nice summary. Thanks for sharing. I’m somewhat excited about the new CEO hire from the competitor, $CECO, who has actually been winning data center contracts.
Maj Soueidan on X
Anyone have a direct line to $MG, call them now. We have a code red!!! https://t.co/zgvG6Ik5vi
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $136M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $105M
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6B
- Maran Capital Management second quarter SPCX
- Intrepid Capital 2Q 2026
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $80B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $45B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 META $1.5T
BHVN 2026-08-27 Biohaven: Sale Of Opakalim Rights To SK Biopharmaceuticals Makes Sense On Many Levels
Edmund Ingham 5 clicks KSTR 2026-08-27 KSTR: Exposure To China's Chips And Potential Diversifier For SOXX
Chetan Woodun 4 clicks ACIW 2026-08-27 ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better
SiliconBytes Insights 5 clicks
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
Nippon Carbon (TYO 5302): A 120 Year Old $350 Million Japanese Carbon Manufacturer Trading at 1x Book, Net Cash, and 4.2% Dividend with a Growing Aerospace Materials Division (JV with GE / Safran)
Nippon Carbon trades at 1x book with net cash and a 4.2% dividend while expanding aerospace materials through GE/Safran joint ventures.
Mitani Corporation (TYO: 8066): $1.2 bn Japanese Conglomerate at 2.6× EV/EBIT with 30+ Years of Profitability
Mitani Corporation trades at 2.6× EV/EBIT and 8.9× earnings, backed by net cash, a 24% lower share count since 2014, and dividends up more…
Gaztransport and Technigaz SA
Gaztransport and Technigaz, a €7 billion French company, leads ultra-low-temperature containment systems for storage and transport.
Ast Spacemobile INC
AST SpaceMobile is priced for a 2026 commercial launch despite no identified path to manufacture or launch its satellite deployment target.
Api Group CORP
APi Group’s mix of specialty contracting segments complicates a conventional contractor valuation.
Howard Hughes Holdings INC
Howard Hughes Holdings is pitched as a long in the $60s, with a near-term $90 target and a projected 20%+ IRR.
Netcompany
Netcompany’s M&A-led expansion turned a high-quality Danish IT consultant into a more commoditized pan-European business.
Cadeler A/S
Cadeler (CDLR) is the world’s largest pure-play owner-operator of wind turbine installation vessels, listed in Oslo and on the NYSE.
Knight Therapeutics INC
Knight Therapeutics (GUD-T) is a long position built on confidence in founder Jonathan Goodman, following his earlier success with Paladin…
Quidelortho CORP
QuidelOrtho is presented as a long idea after falling to 52-week lows, with the thesis centered on misvaluation.
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Topics
Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.
